luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Seahawks, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Cowboys 38–31, but the Cowboys played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 31 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:55 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 3, worth 21 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 31
Seattle Seahawks 38

September 27, 2020 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −5.5

Luck index +66 Seahawks very lucky · −66 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 7, Seahawks win 3.

  1. 1 DAL 38 SEA 9
  2. 2 DAL 34 SEA 12
  3. 3 DAL 57 SEA 41
  4. 4 DAL 30 SEA 19
  5. 5 DAL 45 SEA 37
  6. 6 DAL 29 SEA 23
  7. 7 DAL 18 SEA 16
  8. 8 DAL 37 SEA 40
  9. 9 DAL 23 SEA 30
  10. 10 DAL 36 SEA 55

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 66% of them, Seahawks 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+22.9%
Cowboys by 9–1618.6%
Cowboys by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation2.4%
Seahawks by 1–816.7%
Seahawks by 9–1610.3%
Seahawks by 17+6.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.0 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 7, without the luck Cowboys by 7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 10 for 59 yards, Seahawks 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 9:42 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Daryl Worley), 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% SEA +2.6 pts
Q2 7:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 8 yards, wiping out the play +14% SEA +5.6 pts
Q2 7:33 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Brandon Carr), 14 yards +5% SEA +1.8 pts
Q2 3:37 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards +3% SEA +1.5 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 1:10 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.3 pts
Q3 10:49 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.3 pts
Q3 6:38 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys, 6 yards +1% SEA +0.5 pts
Q3 4:14 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts
Q4 9:54 Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 5 yards +6% DAL +1.0 pts
Q4 7:54 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 4:19 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Damontre Moore), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% DAL +1.0 pts
Q4 4:19 False Start on the Cowboys (Cedrick Wilson Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% SEA +0.7 pts
Q4 1:47 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Trysten Hill), 1 yard 0% SEA 0.0 pts
Q4 0:35 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Cowboys, 5 yards +1% DAL +0.6 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:51 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 7:04 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:42 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Daryl Worley), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1093 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 777 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +14% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q4 2:40 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% DAL SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:37 The Seahawks converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +18% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:55 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +21% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:16 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +9% SEA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lano Hill (SEA SS), out · 0.1 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out · 1.2 pts
  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 72% · Seahawks 28%

Final margin
Seahawks by 7
Luck in points
14.0 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 66% · Seahawks 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Cowboys · Seahawks

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