luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · September 24, 2020–September 28

Week 3 2020: who deserved to win

5 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Falcons 30–26 in a game they win 18% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 3 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Panthers 21–16 @ Chargers 33% 60% Deserved
Lions 26–23 @ Cardinals 37% 30% Lucky
Packers 37–30 @ Saints 40% 70% Deserved
Chiefs 34–20 @ Ravens 40% 83% Deserved
Dolphins 31–13 @ Jaguars 41% 65% Deserved
Bears 30–26 @ Falcons 43% 18% Lucky

Week 3 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 30–26 @ Falcons 18% +82
2 Bills W 35–32 vs Rams 25% +75
3 Lions W 26–23 @ Cardinals 30% +70
4 Seahawks W 38–31 vs Cowboys 34% +66
5 Titans W 31–30 @ Vikings 40% +60
6 Patriots W 36–20 vs Raiders 59% +41
7 Panthers W 21–16 @ Chargers 60% +40
8 Dolphins W 31–13 @ Jaguars 65% +35
9 Packers W 37–30 @ Saints 70% +30
10 Steelers W 28–21 vs Texans 72% +28
11 Chiefs W 34–20 @ Ravens 83% +17
12 Buccaneers W 28–10 @ Broncos 86% +14
13 Colts W 36–7 vs Jets 89% +11
14 49ers W 36–9 @ Giants 97% +3
15 Browns W 34–20 vs Washington 97% +3
16 Eagles T 23–23 vs Bengals 47% +3
17 Bengals T 23–23 @ Eagles 53% −3
18 Washington L 20–34 @ Browns 3% −3
19 Giants L 9–36 vs 49ers 3% −3
20 Jets L 7–36 @ Colts 11% −11
21 Broncos L 10–28 vs Buccaneers 14% −14
22 Ravens L 20–34 vs Chiefs 17% −17
23 Texans L 21–28 @ Steelers 28% −28
24 Saints L 30–37 vs Packers 30% −30
25 Jaguars L 13–31 vs Dolphins 35% −35
26 Chargers L 16–21 vs Panthers 40% −40
27 Raiders L 20–36 @ Patriots 41% −41
28 Vikings L 30–31 vs Titans 60% −60
29 Cowboys L 31–38 @ Seahawks 66% −66
30 Cardinals L 23–26 vs Lions 70% −70
31 Rams L 32–35 @ Bills 75% −75
32 Falcons L 26–30 vs Bears 82% −82