luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · September 17, 2020–September 21

Week 2 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Raiders beat the Saints 34–24 in a game they win 19% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 2 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 34–24 vs Saints 38% 19% Lucky
Rams 37–19 @ Eagles 44% 90% Deserved

Week 2 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Raiders W 34–24 vs Saints 19% +81
2 Bears W 17–13 vs Giants 22% +78
3 Chiefs W 23–20 @ Chargers 40% +60
4 Cowboys W 40–39 vs Falcons 56% +44
5 Seahawks W 35–30 vs Patriots 56% +44
6 49ers W 31–13 @ Jets 59% +41
7 Steelers W 26–21 vs Broncos 64% +36
8 Titans W 33–30 vs Jaguars 67% +34
9 Bills W 31–28 @ Dolphins 73% +27
10 Packers W 42–21 vs Lions 75% +25
11 Colts W 28–11 vs Vikings 75% +25
12 Buccaneers W 31–17 vs Panthers 76% +24
13 Cardinals W 30–15 vs Washington 76% +24
14 Ravens W 33–16 @ Texans 89% +11
15 Rams W 37–19 @ Eagles 90% +10
16 Browns W 35–30 vs Bengals 97% +3
17 Bengals L 30–35 @ Browns 3% −3
18 Eagles L 19–37 vs Rams 10% −10
19 Texans L 16–33 vs Ravens 11% −11
20 Washington L 15–30 @ Cardinals 24% −24
21 Panthers L 17–31 @ Buccaneers 24% −24
22 Vikings L 11–28 @ Colts 25% −25
23 Lions L 21–42 @ Packers 25% −25
24 Dolphins L 28–31 vs Bills 27% −27
25 Jaguars L 30–33 @ Titans 34% −34
26 Broncos L 21–26 @ Steelers 36% −36
27 Jets L 13–31 vs 49ers 41% −41
28 Patriots L 30–35 @ Seahawks 44% −44
29 Falcons L 39–40 @ Cowboys 44% −44
30 Chargers L 20–23 vs Chiefs 60% −60
31 Giants L 13–17 @ Bears 78% −78
32 Saints L 24–34 @ Raiders 81% −81