luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · September 10, 2020–September 14

Week 1 2020: who deserved to win

8 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Lions 27–23 in a game they win 26% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 1 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jaguars 27–20 vs Colts 30% 31% Lucky
Cardinals 24–20 @ 49ers 30% 26% Lucky
Washington 27–17 vs Eagles 34% 42% Coin flip
Bears 27–23 @ Lions 43% 26% Lucky
Packers 43–34 @ Vikings 47% 31% Lucky
Seahawks 38–25 @ Falcons 47% 34% Lucky

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 27–23 @ Lions 26% +74
2 Cardinals W 24–20 @ 49ers 26% +74
3 Steelers W 26–16 @ Giants 27% +73
4 Jaguars W 27–20 vs Colts 31% +69
5 Packers W 43–34 @ Vikings 31% +69
6 Seahawks W 38–25 @ Falcons 34% +66
7 Saints W 34–23 vs Buccaneers 41% +59
8 Washington W 27–17 vs Eagles 42% +58
9 Rams W 20–17 vs Cowboys 55% +45
10 Chiefs W 34–20 vs Texans 70% +30
11 Patriots W 21–11 vs Dolphins 84% +16
12 Bills W 27–17 vs Jets 84% +16
13 Raiders W 34–30 @ Panthers 86% +14
14 Titans W 16–14 @ Broncos 90% +10
15 Chargers W 16–13 @ Bengals 90% +10
16 Ravens W 38–6 vs Browns 95% +5
17 Browns L 6–38 @ Ravens 5% −5
18 Bengals L 13–16 vs Chargers 10% −10
19 Broncos L 14–16 vs Titans 10% −10
20 Panthers L 30–34 vs Raiders 14% −14
21 Jets L 17–27 @ Bills 16% −16
22 Dolphins L 11–21 @ Patriots 16% −16
23 Texans L 20–34 @ Chiefs 30% −30
24 Cowboys L 17–20 @ Rams 45% −45
25 Eagles L 17–27 @ Washington 58% −58
26 Buccaneers L 23–34 @ Saints 59% −59
27 Falcons L 25–38 vs Seahawks 66% −66
28 Vikings L 34–43 vs Packers 69% −69
29 Colts L 20–27 @ Jaguars 69% −69
30 Giants L 16–26 vs Steelers 73% −73
31 49ers L 20–24 vs Cardinals 74% −74
32 Lions L 23–27 vs Bears 74% −74