Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cardinals at 49ers, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?
The Cardinals beat the 49ers 24–20, but the 49ers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:37 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 27 yards, wiping out the play, worth 44 points of win probability to the 49ers.
Final
 Arizona Cardinals | 24 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Cardinals very lucky · −74 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cardinals win 3, 49ers win 7.
- 1 ARI 27 SF 10
- 2 ARI 34 SF 27
- 3 ARI 34 SF 31
- 4 ARI 19 SF 21
- 5 ARI 23 SF 27
- 6 ARI 14 SF 20
- 7 ARI 21 SF 30
- 8 ARI 24 SF 38
- 9 ARI 17 SF 37
- 10 ARI 6 SF 33
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cardinals win 26% of them, 49ers 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cardinals by 17+ | 3.9% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 14.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.5% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 24.1% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 20.5% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 25.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Gould, 52 yds made · 64% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 52 yds missed · 67% expected
- R. Gould, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 56 yds made · 60% expected
- Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds missed · 72% expected
Penalties: Cardinals 9 for 102 yards, 49ers 5 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Horse Collar Tackle on the Cardinals (Isaiah Simmons), 15 yards | +5% SF +1.8 pts |
| Q1 11:00 | Intentional Grounding on the Cardinals (Kyler Murray), 10 yards | +3% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q1 4:45 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 10 yards | +3% SF +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:22 | False Start on the 49ers (George Kittle), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q2 3:01 | False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.4 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 10 yards | +5% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q3 11:52 | False Start on the Cardinals (Kenyan Drake), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 11:02 | Tripping on the Cardinals, 10 yards | +4% SF +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:10 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers (Dre Greenlaw), 15 yards | +5% ARI +1.7 pts |
| Q3 1:37 | Defensive Holding on the 49ers, 5 yards | +6% ARI +1.4 pts |
| Q4 14:21 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% SF +1.3 pts |
| Q4 13:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on the 49ers, 15 yards | +8% ARI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 12:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers, 13 yards | +10% ARI +1.7 pts |
| Q4 9:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 27 yards, wiping out the play | +44% SF +5.9 pts |
Cardinals penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:33 | Z. Gonzalez missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before | +12% SF | ARI: Turnover |
| 2 | Q3 11:37 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +16% ARI | ARI: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 9:54 | Z. Gonzalez missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before | +10% SF | ARI: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 9:37 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Jordan Hicks), 27 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1231 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 | +44% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 8:42 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +12% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 5:27 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +23% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:47 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +11% ARI | SF: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:37 | The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +39% ARI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Ben Garland (SF C), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cardinals 80% · 49ers 20%
- Final margin
- Cardinals by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the 49ers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cardinals by 6.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cardinals 26% · 49ers 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · 
Cardinals · 
49ers
More from Week 1 2020
- Texans at Chiefs KC 34–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Bears at Lions CHI 27–23 · replay 26% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings GB 43–34 · replay 31% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 27–20 · replay 31% for the winner
- Raiders at Panthers LV 34–30 · replay 86% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots NE 21–11 · replay 84% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 27–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington WAS 27–17 · replay 42% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 38–25 · replay 34% for the winner
- Chargers at Bengals LAC 16–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 34–23 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Rams LA 20–17 · replay 55% for the winner
- Steelers at Giants PIT 26–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos TEN 16–14 · replay 90% for the winner