luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Saints, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Buccaneers 34–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Saints win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:18 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 33 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23
New Orleans Saints 34

September 13, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −4

Luck index +59 Saints lucky · −59 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 TB 37 NO 12
  2. 2 TB 30 NO 12
  3. 3 TB 27 NO 13
  4. 4 TB 48 NO 38
  5. 5 TB 26 NO 20
  6. 6 TB 26 NO 24
  7. 7 TB 27 NO 29
  8. 8 TB 21 NO 27
  9. 9 TB 20 NO 33
  10. 10 TB 6 NO 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 59% of them, Saints 41%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+17.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1616.0%
Buccaneers by 1–824.1%
Level after regulation2.2%
Saints by 1–818.4%
Saints by 9–1612.5%
Saints by 17+9.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 11, without the luck Saints by 7.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 54 yds blocked · 65% expected
  • W. Lutz, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • W. Lutz, 21 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 9 for 103 yards, Saints 6 for 119 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:46 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Malcolm Jenkins), 6 yards +2% TB +0.8 pts
Q1 10:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 22 yards +6% TB +2.2 pts
Q2 10:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 33 yards +13% NO +5.3 pts
Q2 5:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 15 yards +6% TB +1.6 pts
Q2 2:00 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Vita Vea), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% NO +2.3 pts
Q2 1:52 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q2 0:39 Intentional Grounding on the Buccaneers (Tom Brady), 10 yards +3% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 14:58 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards +1% NO +0.9 pts
Q3 13:34 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 13:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marcus Williams), 45 yards +3% TB +3.5 pts
Q3 11:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 15 yards, wiping out the play +9% NO +3.9 pts
Q3 8:31 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 4:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Patrick Robinson), 28 yards +9% TB +2.1 pts
Q4 11:44 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 15 yards +3% NO +1.1 pts
Q4 2:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (D.J. Swearinger), 3 yards 0% TB +0.8 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:47 The Saints converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1048 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +13% NO NO: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:36 R. Succop had a 54-yard field goal blockedKicks · 65% expected for him, 0 of 2 from 45+ before +7% NO TB: Punt
4 Q3 13:22 Return touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +9% NO NO: Opp touchdown
5 Q3 11:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1011 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +9% NO NO: Punt
6 Q3 4:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Patrick Robinson), 28 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 322 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +9% TB TB: Field goal
7 Q3 1:00 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +8% TB NO: Punt
8 Q4 14:56 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% NO TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • P.J. Williams (NO CB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 24% · Saints 76%

Final margin
Saints by 11
Luck in points
3.2 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 59% · Saints 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Buccaneers · Saints

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