luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets at Bills, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 27–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:42 left): the Bills were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

New York Jets 17
Buffalo Bills 27

September 13, 2020 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −6.5

Luck index +16 Bills about even · −16 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Bills win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 30 BUF 17
  2. 2 NYJ 17 BUF 14
  3. 3 NYJ 31 BUF 33
  4. 4 NYJ 23 BUF 29
  5. 5 NYJ 17 BUF 26
  6. 6 NYJ 3 BUF 13
  7. 7 NYJ 10 BUF 23
  8. 8 NYJ 10 BUF 27
  9. 9 NYJ 3 BUF 24
  10. 10 NYJ 6 BUF 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 16% of them, Bills 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+1.4%
Jets by 9–164.1%
Jets by 1–810.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Bills by 1–823.8%
Bills by 9–1623.1%
Bills by 17+36.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Bills by 10, without the luck Bills by 14. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Ficken, 31 yds made · 94% expected
  • T. Bass, 38 yds missed · 87% expected
  • T. Bass, 34 yds missed · 92% expected
  • T. Bass, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 19 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 9 for 95 yards, Bills 7 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Daniel Brown), 9 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q1 5:49 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 3 yards +5% BUF +2.1 pts
Q1 5:21 Face Mask on the Bills (Gabriel Davis), 14 yards +1% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q1 5:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 33 yards +4% BUF +3.2 pts
Q1 2:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (Tarell Basham), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 9:55 Defensive Offside on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +1.3 pts
Q2 6:48 Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 0:23 Defensive Holding on the Bills (A.J. Klein), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.1 pts
Q3 9:27 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q3 8:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Nate Hairston), 12 yards +1% BUF +1.7 pts
Q3 3:24 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards +3% BUF +1.8 pts
Q4 15:00 Face Mask on the Bills, 15 yards +3% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q4 9:08 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 5:53 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards 0% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 5:30 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Tarell Basham), 8 yards 0% BUF +1.1 pts
Q4 1:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 20 yards 0% NYJ +2.0 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:03 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +3% BUF NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 11:42 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% NYJ BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 5:49 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 710 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Pierre Desir), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 710 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:23 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:37 T. Bass missed 34-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +6% NYJ BUF: Field goal
7 Q4 15:00 Face Mask on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
8 Q4 14:34 The Jets fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% BUF NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 3% · Bills 97%

Final margin
Bills by 10
Luck in points
4.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 14.0
Replay with same day's form
Jets 16% · Bills 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Jets · Bills

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