Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bears at Lions, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?
The Bears beat the Lions 27–23, but the Lions played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 37 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final
 Chicago Bears | 27 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +74 Bears very lucky · −74 Lions
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bears win 3, Lions win 7.
- 1 CHI 34 DET 15
- 2 CHI 30 DET 21
- 3 CHI 29 DET 26
- 4 CHI 27 DET 30
- 5 CHI 20 DET 26
- 6 CHI 33 DET 43
- 7 CHI 10 DET 23
- 8 CHI 17 DET 34
- 9 CHI 16 DET 36
- 10 CHI 23 DET 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bears win 26% of them, Lions 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bears by 17+ | 3.3% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 7.9% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 13.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 23.7% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| Lions by 17+ | 29.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Santos, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Prater, 32 yds made · 96% expected
- C. Santos, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- M. Prater, 44 yds made · 84% expected
- M. Prater, 55 yds missed · 67% expected
Penalties: Bears 6 for 48 yards, Lions 8 for 77 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:53 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 15 yards | +3% DET +1.2 pts |
| Q1 1:30 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards | +2% CHI +1.4 pts |
| Q2 12:37 | Disqualification on the Lions (Jamie Collins), 15 yards | +5% CHI +2.4 pts |
| Q2 9:31 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards | +5% CHI +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:06 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CHI +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:19 | Face Mask on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 12 yards | +4% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q2 0:51 | Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Bears (Cordarrelle Patterson), 5 yards | 0% DET +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:48 | Roughing the Passer on the Bears, 7 yards | +2% DET +1.0 pts |
| Q3 4:55 | Defensive Holding on the Bears (Akiem Hicks), 5 yards | +1% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q3 4:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Buster Skrine), 11 yards | 0% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q4 10:53 | Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI +0.2 pts |
| Q4 10:44 | Face Mask on the Lions, 15 yards | +1% CHI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Jahlani Tavai), 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% CHI +0.4 pts |
Bears penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:09 | The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% DET | CHI: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 9:02 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +6% DET | CHI: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 9:06 | The Lions converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Lions, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 8:18 | The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +11% DET | DET: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 2:45 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +25% CHI | DET: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 2:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Jahlani Tavai), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 686 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 | +6% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:28 | The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +22% DET | DET: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:06 | The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +37% CHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.9 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bears 32% · Lions 68%
- Final margin
- Bears by 4
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Lions by 3.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bears 26% · Lions 74% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · 
Bears · 
Lions
More from Week 1 2020
- Texans at Chiefs KC 34–20 · replay 70% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 38–6 · replay 95% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings GB 43–34 · replay 31% for the winner
- Colts at Jaguars JAX 27–20 · replay 31% for the winner
- Raiders at Panthers LV 34–30 · replay 86% for the winner
- Dolphins at Patriots NE 21–11 · replay 84% for the winner
- Jets at Bills BUF 27–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington WAS 27–17 · replay 42% for the winner
- Seahawks at Falcons SEA 38–25 · replay 34% for the winner
- Chargers at Bengals LAC 16–13 · replay 90% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers ARI 24–20 · replay 26% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 34–23 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Rams LA 20–17 · replay 55% for the winner
- Steelers at Giants PIT 26–16 · replay 27% for the winner
- Titans at Broncos TEN 16–14 · replay 90% for the winner