luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Bengals, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Bengals 16–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Bengals: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:12 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (A.J. Green), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 58 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 16
Cincinnati Bengals 13

September 13, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +10 Chargers about even · −10 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 LAC 35 CIN 3
  2. 2 LAC 30 CIN 7
  3. 3 LAC 38 CIN 20
  4. 4 LAC 26 CIN 10
  5. 5 LAC 23 CIN 10
  6. 6 LAC 23 CIN 12
  7. 7 LAC 35 CIN 27
  8. 8 LAC 13 CIN 9
  9. 9 LAC 23 CIN 22
  10. 10 LAC 33 CIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Chargers they would win 41% of the time; with this day’s form, 10%.

31 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Chargers offenseEPA per play gained −0.09 +0.13 worse by 0.22
Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.07 +0.13 better by 0.20
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained −0.07 +0.04 worse by 0.11
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.09 +0.16 better by 0.25

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 90% of them, Bengals 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+50.1%
Chargers by 9–1621.8%
Chargers by 1–817.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bengals by 1–85.9%
Bengals by 9–162.1%
Bengals by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 3, without the luck Chargers by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Badgley, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Badgley, 50 yds missed · 71% expected
  • R. Bullock, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Bullock, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • M. Badgley, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 31 yds missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 6 for 35 yards, Bengals 7 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:06 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Chargers (Joe Reed), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q1 5:50 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Nasir Adderley), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q1 4:29 False Start on the Chargers (Mike Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q1 3:19 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% CIN +0.7 pts
Q1 2:24 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 12:36 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC +0.3 pts
Q2 8:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Jessie Bates III), 9 yards +3% LAC +1.7 pts
Q2 8:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Jalen Guyton), 10 yards +3% CIN +1.2 pts
Q2 5:04 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LAC +0.8 pts
Q2 3:11 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Darius Phillips), 5 yards +5% LAC +1.4 pts
Q2 1:11 False Start on the Bengals (C.J. Uzomah), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.5 pts
Q4 2:00 False Start on the Bengals (John Ross), 5 yards · pre-snap +7% LAC +0.4 pts
Q4 0:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (A.J. Green), 10 yards, wiping out the play +58% LAC +4.2 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:20 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% CIN LAC: Field goal
2 Q3 13:49 The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
3 Q3 11:43 M. Badgley missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before +14% CIN LAC: Punt
4 Q4 12:20 The Bengals fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LAC CIN: Turnover
5 Q4 6:22 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% CIN CIN: Turnover
6 Q4 1:36 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +17% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:12 The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (A.J. Green), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · no snap history yet +58% LAC LAC: End of game
8 Q4 0:07 R. Bullock missed 31-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +37% LAC –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Geno Atkins (CIN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Shawn Williams (CIN SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 53% · Bengals 47%

Final margin
Chargers by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 90% · Bengals 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Chargers · Bengals

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