luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Cincinnati Bengals, 2020: game by game

The Bengals went 4–11–1 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.6 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5–1.

Every game

How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Chargers L 13–16 10% −10
Week 2 @ Browns L 30–35 3% −3
Week 3 @ Eagles T 23–23 53% −3
Week 4 vs Jaguars W 33–25 67% +33
Week 5 @ Ravens L 3–27 3% −3
Week 6 @ Colts L 27–31 8% −8
Week 7 vs Browns L 34–37 19% −19
Week 8 vs Titans W 31–20 9% +91
Week 10 @ Steelers L 10–36 12% −12
Week 11 @ Washington L 9–20 12% −12
Week 12 vs Giants L 17–19 22% −22
Week 13 @ Dolphins L 7–19 9% −9
Week 14 vs Cowboys L 7–30 10% −10
Week 15 vs Steelers W 27–17 84% +16
Week 16 @ Texans W 37–31 37% +63
Week 17 vs Ravens L 3–38 4% −4

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
3rd & 4th downs−0.13+1.5
Fumble bounces−0.21−9.4
Injuries−0.42−21.7
Kicks−0.42−9.6
Judgment calls−0.51−0.4