luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Bengals, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Bengals 38–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:22 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Mike Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 38
Cincinnati Bengals 3

January 3, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −13.5

Luck index +4 Ravens about even · −4 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 10, Bengals win 0.

  1. 1 BAL 45 CIN 10
  2. 2 BAL 45 CIN 17
  3. 3 BAL 41 CIN 17
  4. 4 BAL 34 CIN 14
  5. 5 BAL 41 CIN 24
  6. 6 BAL 31 CIN 17
  7. 7 BAL 33 CIN 23
  8. 8 BAL 38 CIN 31
  9. 9 BAL 24 CIN 20
  10. 10 BAL 24 CIN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 96% of them, Bengals 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+67.6%
Ravens by 9–1619.8%
Ravens by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation0.8%
Bengals by 1–82.8%
Bengals by 9–160.6%
Bengals by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 35, without the luck Ravens by 28.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Seibert, 38 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 49 yards, Bengals 3 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:50 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +3% CIN +1.3 pts
Q1 7:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Mike Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% BAL +4.1 pts
Q1 6:52 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 12:37 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 13:51 False Start on the Bengals (Cethan Carter), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAL +0.6 pts
Q3 12:35 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 9:13 Intentional Grounding on the Bengals (Brandon Allen), 14 yards +1% BAL +1.4 pts
Q3 2:51 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Anthony Averett), 16 yards 0% CIN +1.4 pts
Q3 2:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 3 yards 0% CIN +0.5 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:22 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +6% BAL BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 9:50 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yardsJudgment calls +3% CIN CIN: Punt
3 Q1 8:44 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% CIN BAL: Field goal
4 Q1 7:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Mike Thomas), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 536 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +14% BAL BAL: Touchdown
5 Q1 0:44 The Ravens converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +3% BAL BAL: Turnover
6 Q2 14:11 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% CIN BAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 7:07 The Ravens converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +3% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:41 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +3% BAL CIN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 3.6 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN OT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (CIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Randy Bullock (CIN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Daniels (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Yannick Ngakoue (BAL DE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Willie Snead (BAL WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Patrick Mekari (BAL G/C), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Sam Koch (BAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Willie Snead (BAL WR/R), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Ravens by 35
Luck in points
6.7 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 28.3
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 96% · Bengals 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Ravens · Bengals

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