luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Giants, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Cowboys 23–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:24 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 17, worth 41 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 19
New York Giants 23

January 3, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −1.5

Luck index +48 Giants lucky · −48 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 DAL 33 NYG 10
  2. 2 DAL 37 NYG 22
  3. 3 DAL 27 NYG 16
  4. 4 DAL 35 NYG 28
  5. 5 DAL 26 NYG 24
  6. 6 DAL 35 NYG 37
  7. 7 DAL 13 NYG 20
  8. 8 DAL 23 NYG 35
  9. 9 DAL 13 NYG 30
  10. 10 DAL 16 NYG 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 48% of them, Giants 52%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+10.9%
Cowboys by 9–1614.8%
Cowboys by 1–820.8%
Level after regulation4.4%
Giants by 1–820.0%
Giants by 9–1615.6%
Giants by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Giants by 4, without the luck Giants by 10.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 87% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 57 yds made · 54% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 36 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Gano, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 6 for 58 yards, Giants 6 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:06 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards, wiping out the play +13% DAL +4.6 pts
Q1 4:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 15 yards +4% NYG +1.8 pts
Q1 3:40 Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 13:29 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Cam Brown), 10 yards +1% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 9:48 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Randy Gregory), 15 yards +4% NYG +1.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Randy Gregory), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYG +0.3 pts
Q2 0:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 8 yards +1% NYG +0.4 pts
Q2 0:45 Offside on Free Kick on the Giants (Cam Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.5 pts
Q2 0:09 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q3 13:27 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Chidobe Awuzie), 10 yards +1% NYG +1.0 pts
Q3 9:47 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jabrill Peppers), 5 yards +2% DAL +1.2 pts
Q3 6:44 Illegal Crackback on the Giants (Sterling Shepard), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% DAL +1.9 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:06 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 426 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +13% DAL DAL: Punt
2 Q1 7:18 The Giants fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DAL NYG: Punt
3 Q3 1:54 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% DAL DAL: Field goal
4 Q4 15:00 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +11% NYG DAL: Field goal
5 Q4 11:19 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% NYG DAL: Punt
6 Q4 2:32 The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +24% DAL DAL: Turnover
7 Q4 1:24 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +41% NYG –
8 Q4 1:09 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG NYG: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Golden Tate (NYG WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Erving (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Leighton Vander Esch (DAL LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Robinson (DAL CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Antwaun Woods (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 6% · Giants 94%

Final margin
Giants by 4
Luck in points
6.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 10.7
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 48% · Giants 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Cowboys · Giants

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