Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Washington at Eagles, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?
Washington beat the Eagles 20–14 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Before kickoff Washington were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:01 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 15 points of win probability to the Washington.
Final
 Washington Football Team | 20 |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Eagles | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Washington lucky · −37 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington win 6, Eagles win 4.
- 1 WAS 34 PHI 9
- 2 WAS 26 PHI 9
- 3 WAS 31 PHI 19
- 4 WAS 16 PHI 9
- 5 WAS 32 PHI 27
- 6 WAS 19 PHI 17
- 7 WAS 25 PHI 27
- 8 WAS 6 PHI 12
- 9 WAS 20 PHI 31
- 10 WAS 23 PHI 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington win 63% of them, Eagles 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 14.6% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 17.9% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 27.4% |
| Level after regulation | 3.3% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Eagles by 17+ | 5.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 80% expected
- D. Hopkins, 42 yds made · 80% expected
Penalties: Washington 5 for 56 yards, Eagles 6 for 41 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:55 | Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Cole Holcomb), 15 yards | +5% PHI +2.3 pts |
| Q1 5:57 | Encroachment on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:02 | Defensive Holding on Washington (Kamren Curl), 5 yards | 0% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q1 0:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Kendall Fuller), 21 yards | +5% PHI +3.0 pts |
| Q2 12:02 | Defensive Holding on Washington (Cole Holcomb), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PHI +2.6 pts |
| Q2 2:02 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards | +3% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:41 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Javon Hargrave), 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% WAS +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:07 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:47 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Caleb Wilson), 10 yards | +3% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:34 | Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards | +3% PHI +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles, 6 yards · pre-snap | +2% WAS +2.1 pts |
Washington penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Eagles’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 4:47 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +11% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:15 | Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 13:20 | Washington were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +7% PHI | WAS: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 2:01 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +15% WAS | PHI: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 12:53 | Washington were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% PHI | WAS: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 9:42 | The Eagles fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% WAS | PHI: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 4:38 | Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% WAS | WAS: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:38 | Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% WAS | WAS: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out · 1.0 pts
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Jordan Mailata (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
- Fletcher Cox (PHI DT), out · 0.7 pts
- Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Jalen Mills (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Rodney McLeod (PHI S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts
- Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.3 pts
- Kevon Seymour (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Duke Riley (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 83% · Eagles 17%
- Final margin
- Washington by 6
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for the Washington
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 63% · Eagles 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · 
Washington · 
Eagles
More from Week 17 2020
- Falcons at Buccaneers TB 44–27 · replay 98% for the winner
- Ravens at Bengals BAL 38–3 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 23–19 · replay 52% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 56–26 · replay 95% for the winner
- Vikings at Lions MIN 37–35 · replay 46% for the winner
- Jets at Patriots NE 28–14 · replay 58% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns CLE 24–22 · replay 71% for the winner
- Cardinals at Rams LA 18–7 · replay 46% for the winner
- Packers at Bears GB 35–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 28–14 · replay 97% for the winner
- Chargers at Chiefs LAC 38–21 · replay 76% for the winner
- Raiders at Broncos LV 32–31 · replay 68% for the winner
- Saints at Panthers NO 33–7 · replay 87% for the winner
- Seahawks vs 49ers SEA 26–23 · replay 76% for the winner
- Titans at Texans TEN 41–38 · replay 41% for the winner