luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Browns, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 24–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:19 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 7, worth 14 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 22
Cleveland Browns 24

January 3, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −10.5

Luck index +29 Browns lucky · −29 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 PIT 28 CLE 13
  2. 2 PIT 17 CLE 10
  3. 3 PIT 19 CLE 17
  4. 4 PIT 0 CLE 2
  5. 5 PIT 26 CLE 29
  6. 6 PIT 7 CLE 14
  7. 7 PIT 21 CLE 31
  8. 8 PIT 6 CLE 20
  9. 9 PIT 10 CLE 27
  10. 10 PIT 17 CLE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 29% of them, Browns 71%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+3.3%
Steelers by 9–166.8%
Steelers by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation4.5%
Browns by 1–828.9%
Browns by 9–1622.4%
Browns by 17+19.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 2, without the luck Steelers by 0.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Wright, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Wright, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Wright, 46 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 2 for 15 yards, Browns 4 for 19 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:04 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PIT +0.6 pts
Q2 14:05 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q2 2:25 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +4% CLE +1.0 pts
Q3 11:44 False Start on the Browns, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q4 3:02 False Start on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:54 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
2 Q2 1:42 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q3 14:29 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q3 10:19 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +14% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 6:34 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:42 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% CLE PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:13 The Steelers converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:23 The Steelers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Andrew Sendejo (CLE S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • B.J. Goodson (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin Johnson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Harrison Bryant (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Malcolm Smith (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 4.0 pts
  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Eric Ebron (PIT TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Maurkice Pouncey (PIT C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Terrell Edmunds (PIT S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Feiler (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Feiler (PIT OT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 3% · Browns 97%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
2.8 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 29% · Browns 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Steelers · Browns

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