2020 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2020: game by game
The Steelers went 12–4 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.6 wins. Luck added 2.4: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Giants | W 26–16 | 27% | +73 |
| Week 2 | vs Broncos | W 26–21 | 64% | +36 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | W 28–21 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 5 | vs Eagles | W 38–29 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 6 | vs Browns | W 38–7 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | W 27–24 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 8 | @ Ravens | W 28–24 | 37% | +63 |
| Week 9 | @ Cowboys | W 24–19 | 80% | +20 |
| Week 10 | vs Bengals | W 36–10 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 11 | @ Jaguars | W 27–3 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 12 | vs Ravens | W 19–14 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 13 | vs Washington | L 17–23 | 72% | −72 |
| Week 14 | @ Bills | L 15–26 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 15 | @ Bengals | L 17–27 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 16 | vs Colts | W 28–24 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 17 | @ Browns | L 22–24 | 29% | −29 |
| Wild Card | vs Browns | L 37–48 | 48% | −48 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.58 | +16.2 |
| Injuries | +0.45 | +24.2 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.40 | +11.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.40 | +6.8 |
| Kicks | −0.05 | +5.0 |
| Rest | −0.08 | −2.8 |