luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Steelers, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Eagles 38–29 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 6:29 left): the Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 21, worth 28 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 29
Pittsburgh Steelers 38

October 11, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −7.5

Luck index +28 Steelers lucky · −28 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 PHI 33 PIT 20
  2. 2 PHI 34 PIT 27
  3. 3 PHI 24 PIT 21
  4. 4 PHI 20 PIT 22
  5. 5 PHI 24 PIT 28
  6. 6 PHI 20 PIT 27
  7. 7 PHI 13 PIT 23
  8. 8 PHI 7 PIT 20
  9. 9 PHI 20 PIT 37
  10. 10 PHI 16 PIT 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 28% of them, Steelers 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+2.9%
Eagles by 9–166.2%
Eagles by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation4.5%
Steelers by 1–828.1%
Steelers by 9–1621.6%
Steelers by 17+21.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 9, without the luck Steelers by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Elliott, 57 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 9 for 84 yards, Steelers 8 for 86 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:06 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +2% PHI +1.3 pts
Q1 2:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 21 yards +3% PIT +2.2 pts
Q1 2:02 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 2 yards +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 9:43 Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Vince Williams), 15 yards +4% PHI +1.7 pts
Q2 6:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 15 yards +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q2 3:15 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +5% PHI +1.8 pts
Q2 3:15 Encroachment on the Eagles (Josh Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.6 pts
Q3 11:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Jalen Mills), 11 yards +1% PIT +0.8 pts
Q3 7:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 26 yards +2% PHI +2.2 pts
Q3 5:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Genard Avery), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.7 pts
Q3 2:49 False Start on the Steelers (Eric Ebron), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 12:57 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.5 pts
Q4 8:55 Defensive Offside on the Eagles (Fletcher Cox), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PIT +0.9 pts
Q4 8:07 Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards +4% PHI +1.1 pts
Q4 7:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 10 yards, wiping out the play +14% PHI +2.7 pts
Q4 3:18 Face Mask on the Eagles (Brandon Graham), 15 yards +5% PIT +1.9 pts
Q4 2:59 Delay of Game on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:19 The Eagles converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +18% PHI PHI: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:57 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% PIT PIT: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:50 The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% PIT PIT: Turnover
4 Q4 7:15 Offensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 142 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +14% PHI PHI: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:29 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Steelers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +28% PHI PIT: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:27 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% PIT PHI: Missed field goal
7 Q4 3:23 J. Elliott missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before +21% PIT PHI: Turnover
8 Q4 3:04 The Steelers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • DeSean Jackson (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 6% · Steelers 94%

Final margin
Steelers by 9
Luck in points
3.7 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 28% · Steelers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Eagles · Steelers

More from Week 5 2020