luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Titans, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Bills 42–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:41 left): the Bills were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Buffalo Bills 16
Tennessee Titans 42

October 13, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +50 Titans lucky · −50 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 5, Titans win 5.

  1. 1 BUF 35 TEN 16
  2. 2 BUF 23 TEN 10
  3. 3 BUF 35 TEN 27
  4. 4 BUF 24 TEN 20
  5. 5 BUF 21 TEN 20
  6. 6 BUF 24 TEN 26
  7. 7 BUF 24 TEN 28
  8. 8 BUF 17 TEN 24
  9. 9 BUF 20 TEN 31
  10. 10 BUF 19 TEN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 50% of them, Titans 50%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+8.8%
Bills by 9–1614.1%
Bills by 1–823.6%
Level after regulation7.0%
Titans by 1–824.3%
Titans by 9–1614.3%
Titans by 17+7.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Bills: the final margin was Titans by 26, without the luck Titans by 26.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bills 10 for 56 yards, Titans 6 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:33 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Jadeveon Clowney), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.2 pts
Q1 7:26 Illegal Shift on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +12% TEN +4.4 pts
Q1 2:35 False Start on the Bills (Gabriel Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 1:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% BUF +2.7 pts
Q2 7:23 False Start on the Titans (A.J. Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 4:01 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 3:09 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Tye Smith), 9 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q2 2:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Josh Norman), 7 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Double-Team Block on the Titans (Geoff Swaim), 12 yards +1% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 1:57 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Quinton Jefferson), 4 yards +2% TEN +2.1 pts
Q3 1:49 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +1% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 11:33 False Start on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 10:40 False Start on the Bills (Tyler Kroft), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 10:09 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.6 pts
Q4 5:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.9 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +13% TEN BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:56 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:22 The Bills converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:26 Illegal Shift on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +12% TEN TEN: Punt
5 Q1 7:22 The Bills converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:16 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 49 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +6% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q1 0:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:21 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% BUF BUF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kamalei Correa (TEN LB), out · 0.1 pts
  • Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • John Brown (BUF WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Levi Wallace (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Quinton Spain (BUF G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 0% · Titans 100%

Final margin
Titans by 26
Luck in points
0.2 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 26.2
Replay with same day's form
Bills 50% · Titans 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Bills · Titans

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