luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Browns, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Colts 32–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:26 left): the Colts were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 25 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 23
Cleveland Browns 32

October 11, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +55 Browns lucky · −55 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 5, Browns win 5.

  1. 1 IND 38 CLE 17
  2. 2 IND 31 CLE 17
  3. 3 IND 23 CLE 13
  4. 4 IND 30 CLE 24
  5. 5 IND 26 CLE 23
  6. 6 IND 26 CLE 27
  7. 7 IND 22 CLE 26
  8. 8 IND 10 CLE 17
  9. 9 IND 23 CLE 35
  10. 10 IND 10 CLE 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 55% of them, Browns 45%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+9.9%
Colts by 9–1616.2%
Colts by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation6.5%
Browns by 1–823.4%
Browns by 9–1612.6%
Browns by 17+8.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.9 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 9, without the luck Browns by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 32 yds made · 93% expected
  • C. Parkey, 36 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Parkey, 46 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 34 yards, Browns 2 for 10 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:06 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Terrance Mitchell), 5 yards +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q2 0:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Al-Quadin Muhammad), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 13:31 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Olivier Vernon), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% IND +0.8 pts
Q3 5:43 Offensive Holding on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% CLE +1.4 pts
Q4 14:44 Intentional Grounding on the Colts (Philip Rivers), 4 yards +1% CLE +0.3 pts
Q4 7:44 Defensive Offside on the Colts (Bobby Okereke), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% CLE +2.6 pts
Q4 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% CLE +2.2 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:53 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:04 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:16 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:12 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:26 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +25% CLE IND: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:35 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% CLE IND: Field goal
7 Q4 7:16 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% IND CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Colts, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% CLE CLE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Larry Ogunjobi (CLE DT), out · 0.4 pts
  • Karl Joseph (CLE S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Castonzo (IND T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 41% · Browns 59%

Final margin
Browns by 9
Luck in points
7.9 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Colts 55% · Browns 45% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Colts · Browns

More from Week 5 2020