luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · October 8, 2020–October 13

Week 5 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Buccaneers 20–19 in a game they win 42% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 5 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 40–32 @ Chiefs 21% 87% Deserved
Dolphins 43–17 @ 49ers 26% 85% Deserved
Bears 20–19 vs Buccaneers 40% 42% Coin flip
Titans 42–16 vs Bills 41% 50% Coin flip
Panthers 23–16 @ Falcons 43% 95% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Bears W 20–19 vs Buccaneers 42% +58
2 Browns W 32–23 vs Colts 45% +55
3 Titans W 42–16 vs Bills 50% +50
4 Steelers W 38–29 vs Eagles 72% +28
5 Saints W 30–27 vs Chargers 76% +24
6 Seahawks W 27–26 vs Vikings 80% +20
7 Dolphins W 43–17 @ 49ers 85% +15
8 Raiders W 40–32 @ Chiefs 87% +13
9 Texans W 30–14 vs Jaguars 92% +8
10 Panthers W 23–16 @ Falcons 95% +5
11 Cowboys W 37–34 vs Giants 96% +4
12 Ravens W 27–3 vs Bengals 97% +3
13 Cardinals W 30–10 @ Jets 98% +2
14 Rams W 30–10 @ Washington 99% +1
15 Washington L 10–30 vs Rams 1% −1
16 Jets L 10–30 vs Cardinals 2% −2
17 Bengals L 3–27 @ Ravens 3% −3
18 Giants L 34–37 @ Cowboys 4% −4
19 Falcons L 16–23 vs Panthers 5% −5
20 Jaguars L 14–30 @ Texans 8% −8
21 Chiefs L 32–40 vs Raiders 13% −13
22 49ers L 17–43 vs Dolphins 15% −15
23 Vikings L 26–27 @ Seahawks 20% −20
24 Chargers L 27–30 @ Saints 24% −24
25 Eagles L 29–38 @ Steelers 28% −28
26 Bills L 16–42 @ Titans 50% −50
27 Colts L 23–32 @ Browns 55% −55
28 Buccaneers L 19–20 @ Bears 58% −58