luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Cowboys, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 37–34, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q3, 9:51 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Damion Ratley), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 26 points of win probability to the Cowboys. The biggest single swing (Q2, 5:08 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys.

Final

New York Giants 34
Dallas Cowboys 37

October 11, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7.5

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 22 DAL 25
  2. 2 NYG 13 DAL 17
  3. 3 NYG 10 DAL 18
  4. 4 NYG 20 DAL 31
  5. 5 NYG 24 DAL 38
  6. 6 NYG 10 DAL 27
  7. 7 NYG 9 DAL 29
  8. 8 NYG 13 DAL 36
  9. 9 NYG 7 DAL 34
  10. 10 NYG 6 DAL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 4% of them, Cowboys 96%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.2%
Giants by 9–160.7%
Giants by 1–83.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cowboys by 1–89.3%
Cowboys by 9–1620.8%
Cowboys by 17+65.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 3, without the luck Cowboys by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • G. Gano, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Gano, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Gano, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 8 for 81 yards, Cowboys 3 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Adrian Colbert), 15 yards +5% DAL +2.0 pts
Q1 10:05 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +1.7 pts
Q1 9:34 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys, 15 yards +4% NYG +1.2 pts
Q2 11:21 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.5 pts
Q2 1:01 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +21% DAL +5.3 pts
Q2 0:28 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Adrian Colbert), 11 yards +4% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 11:55 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards +4% NYG +1.7 pts
Q3 9:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Damion Ratley), 10 yards, wiping out the play +26% DAL +5.3 pts
Q3 9:39 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +1.5 pts
Q3 4:56 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% DAL +1.7 pts
Q4 8:46 Face Mask on the Giants (Markus Golden), 15 yards +3% DAL +0.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:01 Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +17% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 5:08 The Giants fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +39% DAL NYG: Field goal
3 Q2 4:12 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 1:01 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +21% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:51 The game turned hereOffensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Damion Ratley), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +26% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:21 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% DAL NYG: Field goal
7 Q4 11:03 The Cowboys fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 G. Zuerlein made 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +12% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Looney (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 55% · Cowboys 45%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 4% · Cowboys 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Giants · Cowboys

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