Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at Seahawks, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Vikings 27–26 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): the Seahawks converted 4th & 6, worth 45 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 26 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Seahawks about even · −20 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Seahawks win 8.
- 1 MIN 38 SEA 26
- 2 MIN 33 SEA 30
- 3 MIN 27 SEA 30
- 4 MIN 25 SEA 31
- 5 MIN 26 SEA 34
- 6 MIN 26 SEA 37
- 7 MIN 20 SEA 34
- 8 MIN 20 SEA 37
- 9 MIN 26 SEA 48
- 10 MIN 14 SEA 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 20% of them, Seahawks 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 2.1% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 33.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Bailey, 52 yds made · 64% expected
- D. Bailey, 46 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Vikings 6 for 55 yards, Seahawks 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:35 | False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:13 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +3% SEA +1.1 pts |
| Q3 13:16 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Cameron Dantzler), 10 yards | +2% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:17 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +3% SEA +1.2 pts |
| Q3 7:58 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +2% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 7:06 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 15 yards | +2% MIN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 10:25 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% MIN +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:03 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Jaleel Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:50 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +5% SEA +1.7 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:55 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 10:57 | The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 9:06 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% SEA | MIN: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 2:00 | The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +16% SEA | MIN: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 1:21 | The Seahawks converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +24% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:24 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +13% MIN | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:20 | The Seahawks converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +45% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:15 | The Seahawks’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.6 pts
- Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
- Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Lano Hill (SEA SS), out · 0.2 pts
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Holton Hill (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 51% · Seahawks 49%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 1
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 20% · Seahawks 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · 
Vikings · 
Seahawks
More from Week 5 2020
- Buccaneers at Bears CHI 20–19 · replay 42% for the winner
- Cardinals at Jets ARI 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 23–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 30–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Rams at Washington LA 30–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs LV 40–32 · replay 87% for the winner
- Eagles at Steelers PIT 38–29 · replay 72% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers MIA 43–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Colts at Browns CLE 32–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 37–34 · replay 96% for the winner
- Chargers at Saints NO 30–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Bills at Titans TEN 42–16 · replay 50% for the winner