Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Chiefs, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Chiefs 40–32, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Chiefs: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 73% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Chiefs were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:50 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 2, worth 22 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 40 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 32 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Raiders about even · −13 Chiefs
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 9, Chiefs win 1.
- 1 LV 44 KC 10
- 2 LV 51 KC 24
- 3 LV 31 KC 10
- 4 LV 32 KC 16
- 5 LV 34 KC 21
- 6 LV 20 KC 10
- 7 LV 27 KC 20
- 8 LV 29 KC 24
- 9 LV 25 KC 23
- 10 LV 24 KC 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Chiefs
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 73% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
60 points apart for the Chiefs: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | +0.44 | +0.16 | better by 0.29 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.16 | +0.17 | better by 0.02 |
| Chiefs offenseEPA per play gained | +0.16 | +0.22 | worse by 0.06 |
| Chiefs defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.44 | +0.10 | worse by 0.34 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 87% of them, Chiefs 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 43.6% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 22.3% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 3.0% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 0.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 86% expected
- H. Butker, 32 yds made · 94% expected
- D. Carlson, 43 yds made · 78% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Raiders 8 for 59 yards, Chiefs 10 for 94 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:06 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% LV +5.2 pts |
| Q1 12:50 | Delay of Game on the Raiders (Hunter Renfrow), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KC +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:34 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KC +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:34 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KC +0.5 pts |
| Q1 6:45 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Dorian O'Daniel), 10 yards | +2% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 2:06 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders, 9 yards | +2% KC +0.8 pts |
| Q1 2:01 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs, 19 yards | +3% LV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 5:18 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards | +3% LV +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | False Start on the Chiefs (Demarcus Robinson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Face Mask on the Raiders (Johnathan Abram), 3 yards | +2% KC +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:53 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +14% LV +3.0 pts |
| Q3 13:40 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs (Thakarius Keyes), 10 yards | +4% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:35 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Tyrann Mathieu), 5 yards | +4% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q4 14:14 | Face Mask on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 15 yards | +6% KC +1.4 pts |
| Q4 11:50 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% KC +2.2 pts |
| Q4 4:55 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% LV +2.5 pts |
| Q4 4:12 | Face Mask on the Raiders (Arden Key), 7 yards | 0% KC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:57 | Offside on Free Kick on the Chiefs (Tyreek Hill), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LV +0.5 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Chiefs penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:06 | Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +15% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:51 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +16% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 3:02 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +12% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 2:50 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +22% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:53 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chiefs (Travis Kelce), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1392 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 | +14% LV | LV: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 3:10 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +12% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 14:14 | The Raiders missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the timeFace Mask on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 919 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 | +11% KC | LV: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 10:33 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +11% LV | LV: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- L'Jarius Sneed (KC CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Tyrell Williams (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Maliek Collins (LV DT), out · 0.4 pts
- Richie Incognito (LV G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Bryan Edwards (LV WR), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 41% · Chiefs 59%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 8
- Luck in points
- 9.1 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chiefs by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 87% · Chiefs 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · 
Raiders · 
Chiefs
More from Week 5 2020
- Buccaneers at Bears CHI 20–19 · replay 42% for the winner
- Cardinals at Jets ARI 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 23–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 30–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Rams at Washington LA 30–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Eagles at Steelers PIT 38–29 · replay 72% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers MIA 43–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Colts at Browns CLE 32–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 37–34 · replay 96% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 27–26 · replay 80% for the winner
- Chargers at Saints NO 30–27 · replay 76% for the winner
- Bills at Titans TEN 42–16 · replay 50% for the winner