luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Washington, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat Washington 30–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 70% favorites.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 30
Washington Football Team 10

October 11, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Rams −7

Luck index +1 Rams about even · −1 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 10, Washington win 0.

  1. 1 LA 47 WAS 6
  2. 2 LA 41 WAS 7
  3. 3 LA 33 WAS 3
  4. 4 LA 36 WAS 10
  5. 5 LA 37 WAS 14
  6. 6 LA 24 WAS 3
  7. 7 LA 22 WAS 5
  8. 8 LA 17 WAS 3
  9. 9 LA 20 WAS 11
  10. 10 LA 26 WAS 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 99% of them, Washington 1%. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+90.2%
Rams by 9–166.9%
Rams by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.2%
Washington by 1–80.5%
Washington by 9–160.1%
Washington by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Washington: the final margin was Rams by 20, without the luck Rams by 21.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • S. Sloman, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 5 for 60 yards, Washington 3 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:04 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Aaron Donald), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.1 pts
Q1 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards +7% LA +2.2 pts
Q2 14:52 Illegal Double-Team Block on Washington (J.D. McKissic), 10 yards +1% LA +0.7 pts
Q2 14:47 Unnecessary Roughness on the Rams (Justin Hollins), 15 yards +4% WAS +1.8 pts
Q2 6:03 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams, 10 yards 0% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 5:49 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Montez Sweat), 15 yards +1% LA +1.1 pts
Q2 2:21 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 15 yards +1% WAS +1.2 pts
Q4 11:21 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.4 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:13 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 9:42 The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:15 Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:55 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% WAS LA: Punt
6 Q2 0:03 D. Hopkins made 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +5% WAS WAS: Punt
7 Q3 8:28 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% LA LA: Field goal
8 Q4 15:00 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% WAS LA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Steven Sims (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Matthew Ioannidis (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Cole Holcomb (WAS LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Bobby Evans (LA T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Micah Kiser (LA ILB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Washington 0%

Final margin
Rams by 20
Luck in points
1.3 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 21.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 99% · Washington 1% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Rams · Washington

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