luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Minnesota Vikings, 2020: game by game

The Vikings went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 9th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–4.

Every game

How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Packers L 34–43 69% −69
Week 2 @ Colts L 11–28 25% −25
Week 3 vs Titans L 30–31 60% −60
Week 4 @ Texans W 31–23 88% +12
Week 5 @ Seahawks L 26–27 20% −20
Week 6 vs Falcons L 23–40 90% −90
Week 8 @ Packers W 28–22 70% +30
Week 9 vs Lions W 34–20 70% +30
Week 10 @ Bears W 19–13 91% +9
Week 11 vs Cowboys L 28–31 44% −44
Week 12 vs Panthers W 28–27 29% +71
Week 13 vs Jaguars W 27–24 77% +23
Week 14 @ Buccaneers L 14–26 15% −15
Week 15 vs Bears L 27–33 57% −57
Week 16 @ Saints L 33–52 4% −4
Week 17 @ Lions W 37–35 46% +54

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Kicks+0.49−24.8
3rd & 4th downs+0.04+1.6
Rest−0.02−1.2
Injuries−0.06−0.1
Fumble bounces−0.18−3.1
Judgment calls−0.69−12.8