2021 season · final

Minnesota Vikings, 2021: game by game

The Vikings went 8–9 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.4 wins. Luck added 1.6: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–8.

Every game

How often the Vikings win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Bengals	L 24–27	20%	−20
Week 2	@ Cardinals	L 33–34	29%	−29
Week 3	vs Seahawks	W 30–17	42%	+58
Week 4	vs Browns	L 7–14	37%	−37
Week 5	vs Lions	W 19–17	51%	+49
Week 6	@ Panthers	W 34–28	83%	+17
Week 8	vs Cowboys	L 16–20	7%	−7
Week 9	@ Ravens	L 31–34	8%	−8
Week 10	@ Chargers	W 27–20	24%	+76
Week 11	vs Packers	W 34–31	44%	+56
Week 12	@ 49ers	L 26–34	17%	−17
Week 13	@ Lions	L 27–29	77%	−77
Week 14	vs Steelers	W 36–28	85%	+15
Week 15	@ Bears	W 17–9	44%	+56
Week 16	vs Rams	L 23–30	15%	−15
Week 17	@ Packers	L 10–37	3%	−3
Week 18	vs Bears	W 31–17	54%	+46

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −20 @ CIN

Wk 2 −29 @ ARI

Wk 3 +58 vs SEA

Wk 4 −37 vs CLE

Wk 5 +49 vs DET

Wk 6 +17 @ CAR

Wk 8 −7 vs DAL

Wk 9 −8 @ BAL

Wk 10 +76 @ LAC

Wk 11 +56 vs GB

Wk 12 −17 @ SF

Wk 13 −77 @ DET

Wk 14 +15 vs PIT

Wk 15 +56 @ CHI

Wk 16 −15 vs LA

Wk 17 −3 @ GB

Wk 18 +46 vs CHI

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Vikings’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.33	+15.7
Injuries	+0.11	+0.8
Rest	−0.04	−1.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.05	+5.2
Kicks	−0.43	−3.2
Judgment calls	−1.09	−37.1