Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at 49ers, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?
The 49ers beat the Vikings 34–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:58 left): Return touchdown by the Vikings, worth 14 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 26 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 49ers about even · −17 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 2, 49ers win 8.
- 1 MIN 34 SF 24
- 2 MIN 41 SF 38
- 3 MIN 14 SF 16
- 4 MIN 37 SF 42
- 5 MIN 13 SF 21
- 6 MIN 23 SF 34
- 7 MIN 27 SF 41
- 8 MIN 16 SF 34
- 9 MIN 17 SF 41
- 10 MIN 7 SF 36
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 17% of them, 49ers 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 4.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 10.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 23.4% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 37.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Gould, 46 yds made · 75% expected
- R. Gould, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- R. Gould, 42 yds missed · 83% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Vikings 5 for 38 yards, 49ers 5 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:49 | False Start on the 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:39 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 15 yards | +4% SF +1.2 pts |
| Q2 3:47 | Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards | +5% SF +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:21 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +6% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Sheldon Richardson), 3 yards · pre-snap | +4% SF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:53 | Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards | +3% MIN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 3:17 | Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Deebo Samuel), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% MIN +1.3 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +3% SF +1.0 pts |
| Q4 13:41 | Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Josh Norman), 22 yards | +7% MIN +2.3 pts |
| Q4 3:15 | Encroachment on the Vikings (James Lynch), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MIN +0.5 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:09 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% MIN | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:32 | The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +8% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:42 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +9% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 0:35 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 4:58 | Return touchdown by the VikingsSpecial teams | +14% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 12:46 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% MIN | MIN: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 9:13 | The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +8% SF | MIN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 9:09 | The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +9% SF | MIN: Turnover on downs |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Mike McGlinchey (SF T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Mohamed Sanu (SF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Javon Kinlaw (SF DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Everson Griffen (MIN DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Dalvin Tomlinson (MIN DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 4% · 49ers 96%
- Final margin
- 49ers by 8
- Luck in points
- 0.9 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 8.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 17% · 49ers 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · 
Vikings · 
49ers
More from Week 12 2021
- Bears at Lions CHI 16–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Raiders at Cowboys LV 36–33 · replay 37% for the winner
- Bills at Saints BUF 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 33–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Jets at Texans NYJ 21–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 13–7 · replay 23% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 41–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 28–13 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 36–28 · replay 24% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 16–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington WAS 17–15 · replay 89% for the winner