Week 12 2021 · November 25, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Cowboys, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Cowboys 36–33, but the Cowboys played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 74 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Before kickoff the Cowboys were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (QOT, 6:01 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yards, worth 43 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 36 |
|---|---|
 Dallas Cowboys | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +63 Raiders very lucky · −63 Cowboys
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 4, Cowboys win 6.
- 1 LV 46 DAL 23
- 2 LV 31 DAL 17
- 3 LV 41 DAL 33
- 4 LV 34 DAL 31
- 5 LV 34 DAL 37
- 6 LV 34 DAL 40
- 7 LV 37 DAL 47
- 8 LV 44 DAL 57
- 9 LV 32 DAL 51
- 10 LV 26 DAL 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 37% of them, Cowboys 63%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 8.8% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 11.3% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 16.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 22.0% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 16.3% |
| Cowboys by 17+ | 23.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 98% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 59 yds missed · 60% expected
- D. Carlson, 46 yds made · 80% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 29 yds made · 96% expected
- D. Carlson, 30 yds made · 96% expected
- D. Carlson, 56 yds made · 65% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 45 yds made · 81% expected
- D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 97% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Raiders 14 for 110 yards, Cowboys 14 for 166 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:14 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards | +3% DAL +0.5 pts |
| Q1 5:29 | False Start on the Cowboys, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:17 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:11 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +3% DAL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 11 yards | +9% LV +2.4 pts |
| Q1 1:42 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 30 yards | +9% LV +3.9 pts |
| Q1 0:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders, 8 yards | +2% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q1 0:53 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +10% LV +4.0 pts |
| Q2 13:57 | Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards | +3% LV +1.2 pts |
| Q2 7:36 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Denzel Perryman), 15 yards | +1% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 5:04 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Raiders, 11 yards, wiping out the play | +7% DAL +3.9 pts |
| Q3 12:05 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Casey Hayward), 5 yards | +7% DAL +2.1 pts |
| Q3 10:08 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 10 yards | 0% LV +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Micah Parsons), 15 yards | +5% LV +1.8 pts |
| Q3 7:00 | Leverage on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 1 yard | 0% LV 0.0 pts |
| Q3 5:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 17 yards | +6% LV +2.7 pts |
| Q4 12:41 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +21% LV +3.7 pts |
| Q4 11:23 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +6% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 9:28 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Foster Moreau), 10 yards | +2% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 5:08 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +2% DAL +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:55 | Delay of Game on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.2 pts |
| Q4 2:06 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% DAL +0.5 pts |
| QOT 10:00 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys, 6 yards | 0% LV +0.5 pts |
| QOT 8:50 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Raiders (Amik Robertson), 10 yards | +6% DAL +0.9 pts |
| QOT 6:01 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yards | +43% LV +4.2 pts |
| QOT 4:31 | False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.5 pts |
| QOT 4:31 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LV +0.5 pts |
| QOT 4:31 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% LV +0.2 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Cowboys’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 7:13 | Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams | +17% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 12:41 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +21% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 3 | Q4 2:54 | The Cowboys’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +14% DAL | DAL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 1:57 | D. Carlson made 56-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 15 of 20 from 45+ before | +13% LV | LV: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 0:24 | G. Zuerlein made 45-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him, 25 of 38 from 45+ before | +19% DAL | DAL: Punt |
| 6 | QOT 8:57 | The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +13% LV | DAL: Punt |
| 7 | QOT 6:01 | The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 33 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1489 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +43% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 8 | QOT 4:31 | D. Carlson made 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for himFalse Start on the Raiders, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsNeutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsNeutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +13% LV | LV: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- CeeDee Lamb (DAL WR), out · 1.5 pts
- Amari Cooper (DAL WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Randy Gregory (DAL DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Blake Jarwin (DAL TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 11% · Cowboys 89%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 3
- Luck in points
- 21.1 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 18.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 37% · Cowboys 63% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · 
Raiders · 
Cowboys
More from Week 12 2021
- Bears at Lions CHI 16–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Bills at Saints BUF 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 33–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Jets at Texans NYJ 21–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 13–7 · replay 23% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 41–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 28–13 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 36–28 · replay 24% for the winner
- Vikings at 49ers SF 34–26 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 16–10 · replay 79% for the winner
- Seahawks at Washington WAS 17–15 · replay 89% for the winner