luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Giants, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Eagles 13–7, but the Eagles played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 19 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:08 left): the Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 18 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 7
New York Giants 13

November 28, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Eagles −4

Luck index +77 Giants very lucky · −77 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 8, Giants win 2.

  1. 1 PHI 38 NYG 10
  2. 2 PHI 24 NYG 3
  3. 3 PHI 19 NYG 3
  4. 4 PHI 33 NYG 20
  5. 5 PHI 23 NYG 13
  6. 6 PHI 27 NYG 20
  7. 7 PHI 13 NYG 9
  8. 8 PHI 17 NYG 14
  9. 9 PHI 17 NYG 20
  10. 10 PHI 14 NYG 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 77% of them, Giants 23%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+26.8%
Eagles by 9–1622.3%
Eagles by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation4.5%
Giants by 1–814.6%
Giants by 9–165.9%
Giants by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.7 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 6, without the luck Giants by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Gano, 39 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 4 for 26 yards, Giants 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 7:33 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards 0% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 5:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 4 yards, wiping out the play +10% NYG +2.7 pts
Q2 0:53 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +1% NYG +0.9 pts
Q3 6:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Steven Nelson), 4 yards +4% NYG +2.3 pts
Q3 6:42 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (JJ Arcega-Whiteside), 8 yards +4% NYG +1.1 pts
Q4 3:05 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.8 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:10 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q1 1:15 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +15% NYG PHI: Punt
3 Q2 5:35 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% NYG NYG: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:08 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +18% NYG PHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 12:51 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +10% NYG PHI: Turnover
6 Q4 11:02 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +8% NYG PHI: Punt
7 Q4 1:41 The Eagles fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% NYG PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:25 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +13% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Logan Ryan (NYG FS), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kyle Rudolph (NYG TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kadarius Toney (NYG WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 59% · Giants 41%

Final margin
Giants by 6
Luck in points
5.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 77% · Giants 23% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Eagles · Giants

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