luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Packers, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Rams 36–28, but the Rams played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Rams were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:53 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 28
Green Bay Packers 36

November 28, 2021 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Rams −2

Luck index +76 Packers very lucky · −76 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 8, Packers win 2.

  1. 1 LA 48 GB 17
  2. 2 LA 37 GB 13
  3. 3 LA 36 GB 17
  4. 4 LA 30 GB 15
  5. 5 LA 25 GB 13
  6. 6 LA 33 GB 24
  7. 7 LA 41 GB 36
  8. 8 LA 25 GB 23
  9. 9 LA 23 GB 27
  10. 10 LA 14 GB 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 76% of them, Packers 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+31.7%
Rams by 9–1619.4%
Rams by 1–824.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Packers by 1–812.9%
Packers by 9–166.5%
Packers by 17+3.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.9 points to the Rams: the final margin was Packers by 8, without the luck Packers by 10.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 45 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Crosby, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Gay, 36 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Crosby, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Crosby, 42 yds missed · 79% expected
  • M. Gay, 39 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 4 for 30 yards, Packers 3 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 7:20 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Isaiah McDuffie), 10 yards +2% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 0:40 Defensive Offside on the Rams, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +2% GB +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Packers, 12 yards +2% LA +1.5 pts
Q4 14:52 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts
Q4 14:46 Roughing the Passer on the Rams (Von Miller), 15 yards 0% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 14:39 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +1% LA +1.2 pts
Q4 1:25 False Start on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +0.8 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:12 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% GB GB: Punt
2 Q1 5:32 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +8% GB GB: Punt
3 Q1 3:49 The Rams fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB LA: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 12:53 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +12% LA LA: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:00 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% GB GB: Field goal
6 Q2 5:44 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 8:41 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q3 2:01 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedReturn touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +9% GB LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Tonyan (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Robert Woods (LA WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 5% · Packers 95%

Final margin
Packers by 8
Luck in points
2.9 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 10.9
Replay with same day's form
Rams 76% · Packers 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Rams · Packers

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