luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Jaguars, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Jaguars 21–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:28 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 13, worth 8 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 21
Jacksonville Jaguars 14

November 28, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −1.5

Luck index +15 Falcons about even · −15 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 ATL 33 JAX 3
  2. 2 ATL 29 JAX 6
  3. 3 ATL 29 JAX 10
  4. 4 ATL 31 JAX 16
  5. 5 ATL 27 JAX 14
  6. 6 ATL 34 JAX 23
  7. 7 ATL 14 JAX 6
  8. 8 ATL 20 JAX 14
  9. 9 ATL 34 JAX 31
  10. 10 ATL 13 JAX 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 85% of them, Jaguars 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+36.0%
Falcons by 9–1623.6%
Falcons by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation1.2%
Jaguars by 1–89.7%
Jaguars by 9–163.9%
Jaguars by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 7, without the luck Falcons by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Wright, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 5 for 26 yards, Jaguars 6 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:10 False Start on the Falcons (Lee Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.5 pts
Q1 10:10 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.4 pts
Q1 7:11 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 10:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% ATL +2.1 pts
Q2 6:51 Leverage on the Jaguars, 13 yards +7% ATL +2.8 pts
Q4 9:25 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.6 pts
Q4 7:29 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +6% ATL +1.7 pts
Q4 5:43 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q4 3:31 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Nevin Lawson), 5 yards +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q4 2:29 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 6 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.4 pts
Q4 2:29 False Start on the Falcons (Adetokunbo Ogundeji), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.1 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:24 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% ATL ATL: Punt
2 Q1 4:28 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:13 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% ATL ATL: Punt
4 Q2 7:52 The Jaguars fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ATL JAX: Field goal
5 Q2 6:51 Leverage on the Jaguars, 13 yardsJudgment calls +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:28 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expected +6% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 0:10 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% ATL JAX: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 7:29 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% ATL ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (JAX CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jamal Agnew (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Deion Jones (ATL LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Dustin Colquitt (ATL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Steven Means (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 74% · Jaguars 26%

Final margin
Falcons by 7
Luck in points
3.4 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 85% · Jaguars 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Falcons · Jaguars

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