luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Ravens, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 16–10 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:04 left): the Browns converted 3rd & 4, worth 12 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Baltimore Ravens 16

November 28, 2021 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +21 Ravens about even · −21 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 2, Ravens win 8.

  1. 1 CLE 24 BAL 13
  2. 2 CLE 30 BAL 27
  3. 3 CLE 21 BAL 23
  4. 4 CLE 13 BAL 17
  5. 5 CLE 17 BAL 23
  6. 6 CLE 10 BAL 20
  7. 7 CLE 10 BAL 24
  8. 8 CLE 9 BAL 27
  9. 9 CLE 17 BAL 40
  10. 10 CLE 23 BAL 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 21% of them, Ravens 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+2.9%
Browns by 9–166.4%
Browns by 1–811.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Ravens by 1–825.7%
Ravens by 9–1619.8%
Ravens by 17+31.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.8 points to the Ravens: the final margin was Ravens by 6, without the luck Ravens by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Tucker, 52 yds made · 75% expected
  • J. Tucker, 25 yds made · 100% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Tucker, 49 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 5 for 45 yards, Ravens 5 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 14 yards +7% CLE +1.9 pts
Q1 5:30 Illegal Formation on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +1.0 pts
Q1 3:11 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BAL +2.7 pts
Q1 2:26 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 15 yards +5% BAL +1.2 pts
Q2 3:56 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.6 pts
Q2 0:32 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +2% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards +1% BAL +0.8 pts
Q3 6:34 Roughing the Passer on the Browns (Jadeveon Clowney), 15 yards +3% BAL +0.9 pts
Q3 1:22 Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Tyus Bowser), 15 yards +6% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 2:57 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% CLE +1.4 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:04 The Browns converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
2 Q1 11:45 C. McLaughlin missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 12 of 18 from 45+ before +10% BAL CLE: Punt
3 Q1 5:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 20 flags in 2880 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q2 0:53 The Browns fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% BAL CLE: Punt
5 Q3 11:34 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 9:56 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% BAL BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:38 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% CLE BAL: Punt
8 Q4 2:57 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Chris Westry (BAL CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rashard Higgins (CLE WR), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 51% · Ravens 49%

Final margin
Ravens by 6
Luck in points
4.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 21% · Ravens 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Browns · Ravens

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