luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Cleveland Browns, 2021: game by game

The Browns went 8–9 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.5 wins. Luck cost them 1.5: the 4th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–6.

Every game

How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Chiefs L 29–33 30% −30
Week 2 vs Texans W 31–21 78% +23
Week 3 vs Bears W 26–6 96% +4
Week 4 @ Vikings W 14–7 63% +37
Week 5 @ Chargers L 42–47 47% −47
Week 6 vs Cardinals L 14–37 42% −42
Week 7 vs Broncos W 17–14 69% +31
Week 8 vs Steelers L 10–15 46% −46
Week 9 @ Bengals W 41–16 63% +37
Week 10 @ Patriots L 7–45 4% −4
Week 11 vs Lions W 13–10 70% +30
Week 12 @ Ravens L 10–16 21% −21
Week 14 vs Ravens W 24–22 74% +26
Week 15 vs Raiders L 14–16 48% −48
Week 16 @ Packers L 22–24 52% −52
Week 17 @ Steelers L 14–26 62% −62
Week 18 vs Bengals W 21–16 89% +11

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.80−4.4
Injuries+0.25+17.3
Rest+0.03+0.8
Kicks−0.05−22.2
Fumble bounces−0.20−14.2
3rd & 4th downs−0.40−6.3