luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Patriots, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Browns 45–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 14:57 left): the Browns were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 13 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Cleveland Browns 7
New England Patriots 45

November 14, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −2.5

Luck index +4 Patriots about even · −4 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Patriots win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 20 NE 23
  2. 2 CLE 17 NE 23
  3. 3 CLE 7 NE 16
  4. 4 CLE 7 NE 19
  5. 5 CLE 27 NE 41
  6. 6 CLE 3 NE 19
  7. 7 CLE 10 NE 29
  8. 8 CLE 3 NE 26
  9. 9 CLE 7 NE 34
  10. 10 CLE 7 NE 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 4% of them, Patriots 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.1%
Browns by 9–160.5%
Browns by 1–83.2%
Level after regulation0.5%
Patriots by 1–89.3%
Patriots by 9–1622.4%
Patriots by 17+64.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 38, without the luck Patriots by 36.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Browns 6 for 42 yards, Patriots 6 for 46 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:04 Encroachment on the Patriots (Carl Davis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q1 6:14 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLE +1.3 pts
Q2 14:43 Offensive Holding on the Browns (M.J. Stewart), 10 yards +2% NE +0.8 pts
Q2 12:38 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Joshua Uche), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts
Q2 12:05 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (Joejuan Williams), 1 yard 0% CLE +0.1 pts
Q2 2:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 7 yards +1% NE +1.3 pts
Q2 0:42 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% CLE +2.1 pts
Q3 3:01 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Deatrich Wise Jr.), 15 yards 0% CLE +1.4 pts
Q3 1:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 10 yards 0% NE +0.6 pts
Q3 0:07 Encroachment on the Browns (Malik McDowell), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.3 pts
Q4 8:24 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 5:28 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.4 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 35% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:12 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +3% NE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:09 The Browns converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:43 The Patriots converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:52 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:14 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q1 1:54 The Patriots converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q2 14:57 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +13% NE CLE: Punt
8 Q2 7:06 The Patriots converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% NE NE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jack Conklin (CLE T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Patriots 100%

Final margin
Patriots by 38
Luck in points
1.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 36.1
Replay with same day's form
Browns 4% · Patriots 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Browns · Patriots

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