luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Titans, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Saints 23–21, but the Saints played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 6, worth 16 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 21
Tennessee Titans 23

November 14, 2021 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −3

Luck index +63 Titans very lucky · −63 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 6, Titans win 4.

  1. 1 NO 27 TEN 6
  2. 2 NO 29 TEN 14
  3. 3 NO 27 TEN 16
  4. 4 NO 20 TEN 12
  5. 5 NO 17 TEN 14
  6. 6 NO 14 TEN 12
  7. 7 NO 17 TEN 20
  8. 8 NO 20 TEN 27
  9. 9 NO 10 TEN 21
  10. 10 NO 19 TEN 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 63% of them, Titans 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+15.5%
Saints by 9–1620.6%
Saints by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Titans by 1–818.6%
Titans by 9–1610.8%
Titans by 17+5.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +14.4 points to the Titans: the final margin was Titans by 2, without the luck Saints by 12.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Bullock, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Bullock, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. Johnson, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 9 for 65 yards, Titans 8 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:34 False Start on the Titans (Anthony Firkser), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% NO +0.6 pts
Q1 6:09 Illegal Use of Hands on the Saints, 10 yards +2% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 9:39 Illegal Substitution on the Saints, 6 yards · pre-snap +10% TEN +2.0 pts
Q2 6:15 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Chris Jackson), 5 yards +5% NO +1.3 pts
Q2 3:02 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Kaden Elliss), 4 yards, wiping out the play +16% TEN +4.9 pts
Q2 1:50 False Start on the Titans (Anthony Firkser), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +1.1 pts
Q2 1:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Demario Davis), 5 yards +4% TEN +2.6 pts
Q2 0:15 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.5 pts
Q3 11:10 Face Mask on the Saints (Dwayne Washington), 15 yards +1% TEN +1.1 pts
Q4 10:43 Delay of Game on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.1 pts
Q4 9:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.6 pts
Q4 7:34 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marquez Callaway), 10 yards +3% TEN +1.9 pts
Q4 6:35 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 4 yards +4% NO +2.0 pts
Q4 3:34 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Kevin Byard), 15 yards +4% NO +1.8 pts
Q4 1:25 Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 1:16 False Start on the Saints (Adam Trautman), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN 0.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 15:00 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q2 9:39 Illegal Substitution on the Saints, 6 yardsPre-snap flags +10% TEN TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 2:00 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Kaden Elliss), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 683 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +16% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q3 15:00 The Saints fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN NO: Punt
5 Q4 2:36 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:25 Illegal Shift on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% TEN TEN: End of game
7 Q4 1:20 The Saints converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:16 The Saints’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedFalse Start on the Saints (Adam Trautman), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 4 flags in 1069 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +13% TEN NO: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julio Jones (TEN WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Greg Mabin (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bobby Hart (TEN T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Dane Cruikshank (TEN SS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jameis Winston (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.siemian · 5.3 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Alvin Kamara (NO RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 85% · Titans 15%

Final margin
Titans by 2
Luck in points
14.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 12.4
Replay with same day's form
Saints 63% · Titans 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Saints · Titans

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