luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Cardinals, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Cardinals 34–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Panthers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:41 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 5, worth 22 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 34
Arizona Cardinals 10

November 14, 2021 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −7

Luck index +47 Panthers lucky · −47 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 5, Cardinals win 5.

  1. 1 CAR 33 ARI 10
  2. 2 CAR 21 ARI 6
  3. 3 CAR 16 ARI 6
  4. 4 CAR 19 ARI 13
  5. 5 CAR 28 ARI 26
  6. 6 CAR 22 ARI 24
  7. 7 CAR 21 ARI 26
  8. 8 CAR 17 ARI 27
  9. 9 CAR 14 ARI 29
  10. 10 CAR 0 ARI 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 53% of them, Cardinals 47%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+12.0%
Panthers by 9–1615.2%
Panthers by 1–821.6%
Level after regulation5.4%
Cardinals by 1–821.3%
Cardinals by 9–1613.8%
Cardinals by 17+10.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Panthers by 24, without the luck Panthers by 17. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Prater, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 9 for 115 yards, Cardinals 4 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:18 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers (Cam Newton), 15 yards +4% ARI +1.8 pts
Q1 10:27 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Haason Reddick), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +1.6 pts
Q1 6:25 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% ARI +2.2 pts
Q2 9:36 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% CAR +2.6 pts
Q2 6:23 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% ARI +1.4 pts
Q2 5:56 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 13:28 Offensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (D.J. Moore), 10 yards 0% ARI +1.9 pts
Q3 12:59 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards 0% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 7:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 33 yards 0% CAR +2.3 pts
Q3 5:34 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 35 yards 0% ARI +1.9 pts
Q3 4:41 Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR 0.0 pts
Q4 11:44 Face Mask on the Panthers (Jermaine Carter Jr.), 15 yards 0% ARI +1.9 pts
Q4 2:20 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Keith Taylor), 10 yards 0% ARI +0.9 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% CAR ARI: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 13:34 The Panthers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 12:45 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 11:18 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Panthers (Cam Newton), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 1017 snaps before, position avg 1 per 711 +4% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
5 Q1 9:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +6% CAR ARI: Turnover
6 Q1 6:25 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% ARI ARI: Punt
7 Q2 9:45 Z. Gonzalez made 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 20 of 29 from 45+ before +4% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q2 0:04 Z. Gonzalez made 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 21 of 30 from 45+ before +5% CAR CAR: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kyler Murray (ARI QB), out, replaced by c.mccoy · 5.5 pts
  • J.J. Watt (ARI DE), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • DeAndre Hopkins (ARI WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Justin Pugh (ARI G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Max Garcia (ARI C), out · 0.2 pts
  • Chase Edmonds (ARI RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Aaron Brewer (ARI LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Matt Paradis (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • John Miller (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Darnold (CAR QB), out (IR), replaced by p.walker · 0.2 pts
  • Joseph Charlton (CAR P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 100% · Cardinals 0%

Final margin
Panthers by 24
Luck in points
7.0 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 17.0
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 53% · Cardinals 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Panthers · Cardinals

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