luckadjusted

Week 10 2021 · November 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Jets, Week 10 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 45–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 83% favorites.

Final

Buffalo Bills 45
New York Jets 17

November 14, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −13

Luck index +4 Bills about even · −4 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 56 NYJ 16
  2. 2 BUF 47 NYJ 16
  3. 3 BUF 43 NYJ 17
  4. 4 BUF 35 NYJ 13
  5. 5 BUF 24 NYJ 6
  6. 6 BUF 40 NYJ 24
  7. 7 BUF 44 NYJ 31
  8. 8 BUF 44 NYJ 34
  9. 9 BUF 31 NYJ 24
  10. 10 BUF 21 NYJ 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 96% of them, Jets 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+74.3%
Bills by 9–1614.5%
Bills by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jets by 1–82.2%
Jets by 9–160.9%
Jets by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Jets: the final margin was Bills by 28, without the luck Bills by 31.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 48 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 7 for 50 yards, Jets 9 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Braxton Berrios), 10 yards +1% BUF +1.0 pts
Q1 10:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Elijah Moore), 10 yards +3% BUF +0.9 pts
Q1 5:22 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards +2% BUF +1.0 pts
Q1 2:06 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYJ +3.6 pts
Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% BUF +1.6 pts
Q2 11:09 Delay of Game on the Jets, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +1.0 pts
Q2 4:53 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Jordan Poyer), 5 yards +1% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q2 1:53 False Start on the Bills (Devin Singletary), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.3 pts
Q2 0:09 False Start on the Bills (Cole Beasley), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYJ +0.1 pts
Q3 10:47 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 6:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets (C.J. Mosley), 0 yards 0% BUF 0.0 pts
Q3 0:32 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards 0% BUF +1.2 pts
Q4 13:06 Defensive Holding on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards 0% NYJ +3.8 pts
Q4 8:22 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.5 pts
Q4 5:01 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (A.J. Epenesa), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYJ +2.9 pts
Q4 3:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Dane Jackson), 5 yards 0% NYJ +1.0 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:22 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% BUF NYJ: Punt
2 Q1 11:34 The Jets converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Turnover
3 Q1 9:24 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% BUF NYJ: Punt
4 Q1 3:25 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% BUF BUF: Punt
5 Q1 2:06 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NYJ NYJ: Punt
6 Q2 13:33 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% BUF BUF: Punt
7 Q2 2:00 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% BUF NYJ: Field goal
8 Q2 0:57 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tremaine Edmunds (BUF LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Star Lotulelei (BUF DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 100% · Jets 0%

Final margin
Bills by 28
Luck in points
3.9 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 31.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 96% · Jets 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2021 games · Bills · Jets

More from Week 10 2021