2021 season · final

New York Jets, 2021: game by game

The Jets went 4–13 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.9 wins. Luck cost them 0.9: the 10th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–5.

Every game

How often the Jets win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Panthers	L 14–19	7%	−7
Week 2	vs Patriots	L 6–25	29%	−29
Week 3	@ Broncos	L 0–26	5%	−5
Week 4	vs Titans	W 27–24	30%	+70
Week 5	@ Falcons	L 20–27	24%	−24
Week 7	@ Patriots	L 13–54	7%	−7
Week 8	vs Bengals	W 34–31	62%	+38
Week 9	@ Colts	L 30–45	18%	−18
Week 10	vs Bills	L 17–45	4%	−4
Week 11	vs Dolphins	L 17–24	52%	−52
Week 12	@ Texans	W 21–14	86%	+14
Week 13	vs Eagles	L 18–33	33%	−33
Week 14	vs Saints	L 9–30	39%	−39
Week 15	@ Dolphins	L 24–31	28%	−28
Week 16	vs Jaguars	W 26–21	55%	+45
Week 17	vs Buccaneers	L 24–28	11%	−11
Week 18	@ Bills	L 10–27	0%	0

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −7 @ CAR

Wk 2 −29 vs NE

Wk 3 −5 @ DEN

Wk 4 +70 vs TEN

Wk 5 −24 @ ATL

Wk 7 −7 @ NE

Wk 8 +38 vs CIN

Wk 9 −18 @ IND

Wk 10 −4 vs BUF

Wk 11 −52 vs MIA

Wk 12 +14 @ HOU

Wk 13 −33 vs PHI

Wk 14 −39 vs NO

Wk 15 −28 @ MIA

Wk 16 +45 vs JAX

Wk 17 −11 vs TB

Wk 18 0 @ BUF

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jets’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.10	−19.0
Injuries	−0.14	−6.3
Judgment calls	−0.22	+4.0
Fumble bounces	−0.29	−14.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.41	−3.4