luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jets vs Falcons, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Jets 27–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:27 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 1, worth 11 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

New York Jets 20
Atlanta Falcons 27

October 10, 2021 · Tottenham Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −3

Luck index +24 Falcons about even · −24 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 2, Falcons win 8.

  1. 1 NYJ 20 ATL 6
  2. 2 NYJ 14 ATL 10
  3. 3 NYJ 13 ATL 16
  4. 4 NYJ 20 ATL 24
  5. 5 NYJ 13 ATL 20
  6. 6 NYJ 24 ATL 34
  7. 7 NYJ 12 ATL 24
  8. 8 NYJ 19 ATL 34
  9. 9 NYJ 3 ATL 22
  10. 10 NYJ 16 ATL 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 24% of them, Falcons 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+2.6%
Jets by 9–166.7%
Jets by 1–814.1%
Level after regulation3.8%
Falcons by 1–826.0%
Falcons by 9–1622.9%
Falcons by 17+23.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.5 points to the Jets: the final margin was Falcons by 7, without the luck Falcons by 11.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 49 yds made · 71% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jets 7 for 58 yards, Falcons 4 for 66 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:55 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 15 yards +7% ATL +3.1 pts
Q1 6:58 Defensive Holding on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 5 yards +3% ATL +0.7 pts
Q2 12:24 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yards +2% ATL +1.5 pts
Q2 8:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Fabian Moreau), 10 yards +3% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q2 0:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 8 yards +1% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 0:59 Illegal Touch Pass on the Jets (Elijah Moore), 0 yards 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q4 11:39 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% NYJ +3.4 pts
Q4 8:17 Illegal Use of Hands on the Jets (Michael Carter), 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 7:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 41 yards +5% NYJ +3.2 pts
Q4 4:52 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q4 0:17 Illegal Motion on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts

Jets penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:55 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Quincy Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 934 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q1 11:27 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q1 9:37 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% NYJ ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 11:06 The Falcons converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q2 5:11 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +4% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
6 Q4 11:39 Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1183 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:52 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Matt Gono (ATL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Russell Gage (ATL WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Isaiah Oliver (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Erik Harris (ATL FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Cameron Nizialek (ATL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NYJ S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (NYJ TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Braden Mann (NYJ P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYJ FS), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 8% · Falcons 92%

Final margin
Falcons by 7
Luck in points
4.5 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 11.5
Replay with same day's form
Jets 24% · Falcons 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Jets · Falcons

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