luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Buccaneers, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Dolphins 45–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:12 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 2, worth 15 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Miami Dolphins 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45

October 10, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −11

Luck index +1 Buccaneers about even · −1 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 0, Buccaneers win 10.

  1. 1 MIA 17 TB 21
  2. 2 MIA 19 TB 27
  3. 3 MIA 14 TB 26
  4. 4 MIA 14 TB 29
  5. 5 MIA 13 TB 31
  6. 6 MIA 6 TB 28
  7. 7 MIA 3 TB 28
  8. 8 MIA 10 TB 38
  9. 9 MIA 10 TB 41
  10. 10 MIA 16 TB 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 1% of them, Buccaneers 99%. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+0.1%
Dolphins by 9–160.0%
Dolphins by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.1%
Buccaneers by 1–82.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1610.1%
Buccaneers by 17+85.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 28, without the luck Buccaneers by 27.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Succop, 42 yds made · 83% expected
  • B. Pinion, 60 yds missed · 55% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 5 for 37 yards, Buccaneers 6 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:55 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q1 11:17 Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers (Kevin Minter), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q1 4:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Ross Cockrell), 12 yards +6% MIA +1.2 pts
Q2 8:16 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q2 5:05 Encroachment on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Eric Rowe), 7 yards +1% TB +1.5 pts
Q3 7:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Richard Sherman), 16 yards +3% MIA +1.8 pts
Q4 9:23 False Start on the Buccaneers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 9:05 False Start on the Buccaneers (Antonio Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 7:06 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Zach Sieler), 15 yards 0% TB +1.0 pts
Q4 3:04 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:25 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +5% TB MIA: Field goal
2 Q1 7:09 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Ross Cockrell), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1540 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:39 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q2 14:57 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +6% MIA TB: Field goal
6 Q2 12:50 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% TB MIA: Punt
7 Q2 11:12 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +15% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:46 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rob Gronkowski (TB TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • DeVante Parker (MIA WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Michael Deiter (MIA C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Jenkins (MIA NT), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 0% · Buccaneers 100%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 28
Luck in points
0.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 27.3
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 1% · Buccaneers 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Dolphins · Buccaneers

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