luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · October 7, 2021–October 11

Week 5 2021: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Cardinals beat the 49ers 17–10 in a game they win 28% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 5 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 4 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bears 20–9 @ Raiders 34% 52% Coin flip
Eagles 21–18 @ Panthers 43% 38% Lucky
Bills 38–20 @ Chiefs 43% 43% Coin flip
Steelers 27–19 vs Broncos 44% 52% Coin flip

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cardinals W 17–10 vs 49ers 28% +72
2 Saints W 33–22 @ Washington 34% +66
3 Eagles W 21–18 @ Panthers 38% +62
4 Bills W 38–20 @ Chiefs 43% +57
5 Vikings W 19–17 vs Lions 51% +49
6 Bears W 20–9 @ Raiders 52% +49
7 Steelers W 27–19 vs Broncos 52% +48
8 Chargers W 47–42 vs Browns 53% +47
9 Titans W 37–19 @ Jaguars 62% +38
10 Ravens W 31–25 vs Colts 69% +31
11 Cowboys W 44–20 vs Giants 71% +29
12 Rams W 26–17 @ Seahawks 73% +27
13 Patriots W 25–22 @ Texans 76% +24
14 Falcons W 27–20 vs Jets 76% +24
15 Packers W 25–22 @ Bengals 86% +14
16 Buccaneers W 45–17 vs Dolphins 99% +1
17 Dolphins L 17–45 @ Buccaneers 1% −1
18 Bengals L 22–25 vs Packers 14% −14
19 Jets L 20–27 @ Falcons 24% −24
20 Texans L 22–25 vs Patriots 24% −24
21 Seahawks L 17–26 vs Rams 27% −27
22 Giants L 20–44 @ Cowboys 29% −29
23 Colts L 25–31 @ Ravens 31% −31
24 Jaguars L 19–37 vs Titans 38% −38
25 Browns L 42–47 @ Chargers 47% −47
26 Broncos L 19–27 @ Steelers 48% −48
27 Raiders L 9–20 vs Bears 49% −49
28 Lions L 17–19 @ Vikings 49% −49
29 Chiefs L 20–38 vs Bills 57% −57
30 Panthers L 18–21 vs Eagles 62% −62
31 Washington L 22–33 vs Saints 66% −66
32 49ers L 10–17 @ Cardinals 72% −72