2021 NFL season · final
Every upset of 2021, and which were deserved
107 upsets in 2021, 49 of them deserved. The biggest: the Jaguars beat the Bills 9–6 (Week 9) as 14% underdogs, and it was a coin flip on the day.
An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 95 of these 284 games should have gone to the underdog; 107 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (35 of 107).
| # | Game | When | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaguars 9, Bills 6 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 14% | 41% | Coin flip |
| 2 | Jaguars 26, Colts 11 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 15% | 82% | Deserved |
| 3 | Texans 41, Chargers 29 | 2021 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2021 | 16% | 24% | Lucky |
| 4 | Lions 30, Cardinals 12 | 2021 Week 15 · Dec 19, 2021 | 17% | 20% | Lucky |
| 5 | Jets 34, Bengals 31 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 20% | 62% | Deserved |
| 6 | Saints 9, Buccaneers 0 | 2021 Week 15 · Dec 19, 2021 | 20% | 17% | Lucky |
| 7 | Broncos 30, Cowboys 16 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 22% | 52% | Coin flip |
| 8 | Texans 22, Titans 13 | 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 | 22% | 13% | Lucky |
| 9 | Washington 29, Buccaneers 19 | 2021 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2021 | 23% | 17% | Lucky |
| 10 | Raiders 23, Colts 20 | 2021 Week 17 · Jan 2, 2022 | 26% | 49% | Coin flip |
| 11 | Dolphins 22, Ravens 10 | 2021 Week 10 · Nov 11, 2021 | 26% | 36% | Lucky |
| 12 | Giants 27, Saints 21 | 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 | 29% | 17% | Lucky |
| 13 | Colts 41, Bills 15 | 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 | 29% | 59% | Coin flip |
| 14 | Lions 29, Vikings 27 | 2021 Week 13 · Dec 5, 2021 | 30% | 23% | Lucky |
| 15 | Falcons 27, Saints 25 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 30% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 16 | Titans 28, Rams 16 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 30% | 35% | Lucky |
| 17 | Panthers 34, Cardinals 10 | 2021 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2021 | 30% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 18 | Raiders 36, Cowboys 33 | 2021 Week 12 · Nov 25, 2021 | 30% | 37% | Lucky |
| 19 | Bears 25, Seahawks 24 | 2021 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2021 | 30% | 37% | Lucky |
| 20 | Bengals 27, Chiefs 24 | 2021 AFC Championship · Jan 30, 2022 | 30% | 20% | Lucky |
| 21 | Steelers 23, Bills 16 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 32% | 56% | Coin flip |
| 22 | Titans 33, Seahawks 30 | 2021 Week 2 · Sep 19, 2021 | 32% | 65% | Deserved |
| 23 | Chargers 30, Chiefs 24 | 2021 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2021 | 32% | 37% | Lucky |
| 24 | Bengals 41, Ravens 17 | 2021 Week 7 · Oct 24, 2021 | 32% | 83% | Deserved |
| 25 | Packers 24, Cardinals 21 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 28, 2021 | 32% | 35% | Lucky |
| 26 | Cardinals 25, Cowboys 22 | 2021 Week 17 · Jan 2, 2022 | 32% | 75% | Deserved |
| 27 | Titans 34, Bills 31 | 2021 Week 6 · Oct 18, 2021 | 33% | 57% | Coin flip |
| 28 | Texans 30, Jaguars 16 | 2021 Week 15 · Dec 19, 2021 | 33% | 31% | Lucky |
| 29 | Dolphins 33, Patriots 24 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 33% | 28% | Lucky |
| 30 | Raiders 26, Steelers 17 | 2021 Week 2 · Sep 19, 2021 | 34% | 80% | Deserved |
| 31 | Jets 27, Titans 24 | 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 | 34% | 30% | Lucky |
| 32 | Bears 20, Raiders 9 | 2021 Week 5 · Oct 10, 2021 | 34% | 52% | Coin flip |
| 33 | Steelers 15, Browns 10 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 34% | 54% | Coin flip |
| 34 | Cardinals 31, 49ers 17 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 34% | 84% | Deserved |
| 35 | Seahawks 38, Cardinals 30 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 34% | 83% | Deserved |
| 36 | 49ers 13, Packers 10 | 2021 Divisional round · Jan 22, 2022 | 34% | 76% | Deserved |
| 37 | Raiders 34, Broncos 24 | 2021 Week 6 · Oct 17, 2021 | 36% | 45% | Coin flip |
| 38 | Cowboys 20, Vikings 16 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 37% | 93% | Deserved |
| 39 | Bengals 19, Titans 16 | 2021 Divisional round · Jan 22, 2022 | 38% | 13% | Lucky |
| 40 | Saints 38, Packers 3 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 38% | 77% | Deserved |
| 41 | Titans 27, Chiefs 3 | 2021 Week 7 · Oct 24, 2021 | 38% | 86% | Deserved |
| 42 | Saints 36, Buccaneers 27 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 38% | 22% | Lucky |
| 43 | Giants 13, Eagles 7 | 2021 Week 12 · Nov 28, 2021 | 38% | 23% | Lucky |
| 44 | Steelers 20, Ravens 19 | 2021 Week 13 · Dec 5, 2021 | 38% | 70% | Deserved |
| 45 | Lions 37, Packers 30 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 38% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 46 | Texans 37, Jaguars 21 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 40% | 83% | Deserved |
| 47 | Ravens 36, Chiefs 35 | 2021 Week 2 · Sep 19, 2021 | 40% | 67% | Deserved |
| 48 | 49ers 31, Rams 10 | 2021 Week 10 · Nov 15, 2021 | 40% | 49% | Coin flip |
| 49 | Titans 20, 49ers 17 | 2021 Week 16 · Dec 23, 2021 | 40% | 33% | Lucky |
| 50 | Bengals 34, Chiefs 31 | 2021 Week 17 · Jan 2, 2022 | 40% | 15% | Lucky |
| 51 | Raiders 35, Chargers 32 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 40% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 52 | Dolphins 17, Patriots 16 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 40% | 78% | Deserved |
| 53 | Eagles 32, Falcons 6 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 40% | 69% | Deserved |
| 54 | Packers 30, 49ers 28 | 2021 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2021 | 40% | 88% | Deserved |
| 55 | Cardinals 37, Rams 20 | 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 | 40% | 71% | Deserved |
| 56 | Colts 30, 49ers 18 | 2021 Week 7 · Oct 24, 2021 | 40% | 46% | Coin flip |
| 57 | Patriots 27, Chargers 24 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 40% | 24% | Lucky |
| 58 | Washington 27, Panthers 21 | 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 | 40% | 68% | Deserved |
| 59 | Bengals 27, Vikings 24 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 41% | 80% | Deserved |
| 60 | Raiders 33, Ravens 27 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 13, 2021 | 41% | 72% | Deserved |
| 61 | Cowboys 20, Chargers 17 | 2021 Week 2 · Sep 19, 2021 | 41% | 60% | Deserved |
| 62 | Panthers 26, Saints 7 | 2021 Week 2 · Sep 19, 2021 | 41% | 79% | Deserved |
| 63 | Falcons 17, Giants 14 | 2021 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2021 | 41% | 64% | Deserved |
| 64 | Saints 28, Patriots 13 | 2021 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2021 | 41% | 83% | Deserved |
| 65 | Cardinals 37, Browns 14 | 2021 Week 6 · Oct 17, 2021 | 41% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 66 | Giants 25, Panthers 3 | 2021 Week 7 · Oct 24, 2021 | 41% | 96% | Deserved |
| 67 | Titans 34, Colts 31 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 41% | 38% | Lucky |
| 68 | Giants 23, Raiders 16 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 41% | 13% | Lucky |
| 69 | Vikings 27, Chargers 20 | 2021 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2021 | 41% | 24% | Lucky |
| 70 | Jets 21, Texans 14 | 2021 Week 12 · Nov 28, 2021 | 41% | 86% | Deserved |
| 71 | Seahawks 30, 49ers 23 | 2021 Week 13 · Dec 5, 2021 | 41% | 2% | Lucky |
| 72 | Patriots 14, Bills 10 | 2021 Week 13 · Dec 6, 2021 | 41% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 73 | Rams 30, Cardinals 23 | 2021 Week 14 · Dec 13, 2021 | 41% | 70% | Deserved |
| 74 | Bengals 15, Broncos 10 | 2021 Week 15 · Dec 19, 2021 | 41% | 67% | Deserved |
| 75 | Colts 22, Cardinals 16 | 2021 Week 16 · Dec 25, 2021 | 41% | 61% | Deserved |
| 76 | Steelers 16, Ravens 13 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 41% | 17% | Lucky |
| 77 | 49ers 27, Rams 24 | 2021 Week 18 · Jan 9, 2022 | 41% | 75% | Deserved |
| 78 | 49ers 23, Cowboys 17 | 2021 Wild Card · Jan 16, 2022 | 41% | 87% | Deserved |
| 79 | Cardinals 38, Titans 13 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 43% | 78% | Deserved |
| 80 | Chargers 20, Washington 16 | 2021 Week 1 · Sep 12, 2021 | 43% | 89% | Deserved |
| 81 | Bengals 24, Steelers 10 | 2021 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2021 | 43% | 85% | Deserved |
| 82 | Colts 27, Dolphins 17 | 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 | 43% | 88% | Deserved |
| 83 | Seahawks 28, 49ers 21 | 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 | 43% | 8% | Lucky |
| 84 | Bills 38, Chiefs 20 | 2021 Week 5 · Oct 10, 2021 | 43% | 43% | Coin flip |
| 85 | Eagles 21, Panthers 18 | 2021 Week 5 · Oct 10, 2021 | 43% | 38% | Lucky |
| 86 | Jaguars 23, Dolphins 20 | 2021 Week 6 · Oct 17, 2021 | 43% | 62% | Deserved |
| 87 | Panthers 19, Falcons 13 | 2021 Week 8 · Oct 31, 2021 | 43% | 32% | Lucky |
| 88 | Browns 41, Bengals 16 | 2021 Week 9 · Nov 7, 2021 | 43% | 63% | Deserved |
| 89 | Cardinals 23, Seahawks 13 | 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 | 43% | 62% | Deserved |
| 90 | Broncos 28, Chargers 13 | 2021 Week 12 · Nov 28, 2021 | 43% | 39% | Lucky |
| 91 | Chargers 41, Bengals 22 | 2021 Week 13 · Dec 5, 2021 | 43% | 70% | Deserved |
| 92 | Falcons 29, Panthers 21 | 2021 Week 14 · Dec 12, 2021 | 43% | 61% | Deserved |
| 93 | Rams 30, Buccaneers 27 | 2021 Divisional round · Jan 23, 2022 | 43% | 43% | Coin flip |
| 94 | Vikings 30, Seahawks 17 | 2021 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2021 | 44% | 42% | Coin flip |
| 95 | Steelers 27, Broncos 19 | 2021 Week 5 · Oct 10, 2021 | 44% | 52% | Coin flip |
| 96 | Packers 36, Rams 28 | 2021 Week 12 · Nov 28, 2021 | 44% | 24% | Lucky |
| 97 | Rams 34, Buccaneers 24 | 2021 Week 3 · Sep 26, 2021 | 47% | 34% | Lucky |
| 98 | Vikings 34, Packers 31 | 2021 Week 11 · Nov 21, 2021 | 47% | 44% | Coin flip |
| 99 | Dolphins 33, Panthers 10 | 2021 Week 12 · Nov 28, 2021 | 47% | 74% | Deserved |
| 100 | Washington 17, Seahawks 15 | 2021 Week 12 · Nov 29, 2021 | 47% | 89% | Deserved |
| 101 | Colts 27, Patriots 17 | 2021 Week 15 · Dec 18, 2021 | 47% | 75% | Deserved |
| 102 | Raiders 17, Broncos 13 | 2021 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2021 | 47% | 77% | Deserved |
| 103 | Steelers 26, Browns 14 | 2021 Week 17 · Jan 3, 2022 | 47% | 38% | Lucky |
| 104 | Ravens 23, Broncos 7 | 2021 Week 4 · Oct 3, 2021 | 47% | 89% | Deserved |
| 105 | Eagles 30, Broncos 13 | 2021 Week 10 · Nov 14, 2021 | 47% | 70% | Deserved |
| 106 | Washington 17, Raiders 15 | 2021 Week 13 · Dec 5, 2021 | 47% | 51% | Coin flip |
| 107 | Bills 33, Patriots 21 | 2021 Week 16 · Dec 26, 2021 | 47% | 78% | Deserved |
Upsets week by week
| Week | Upsets | Deserved | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 9 | 8 | 16 |
| Week 2 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
| Week 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 |
| Week 4 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| Week 5 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| Week 6 | 4 | 1 | 14 |
| Week 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| Week 8 | 8 | 2 | 15 |
| Week 9 | 7 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 10 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| Week 11 | 5 | 2 | 15 |
| Week 12 | 7 | 3 | 15 |
| Week 13 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 14 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 15 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 16 | 6 | 3 | 16 |
| Week 17 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| Week 18 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| Wild Card | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Divisional round | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Conference championships | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Super Bowl | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2023 · 2022 · 2020 · 2019
The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2021 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?