luckadjusted

Divisional round 2021 · January 22, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Titans, Divisional round 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals stole one. They beat the Titans 19–16, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 39 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Titans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:04 left): E. McPherson made 52-yard field goal, worth 26 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 19
Tennessee Titans 16

January 22, 2022 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −4

Luck index +87 Bengals very lucky · −87 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 22 TEN 16
  2. 2 CIN 31 TEN 33
  3. 3 CIN 22 TEN 27
  4. 4 CIN 16 TEN 24
  5. 5 CIN 22 TEN 33
  6. 6 CIN 21 TEN 34
  7. 7 CIN 16 TEN 31
  8. 8 CIN 17 TEN 37
  9. 9 CIN 10 TEN 34
  10. 10 CIN 10 TEN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 13% of them, Titans 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+1.1%
Bengals by 9–162.9%
Bengals by 1–87.7%
Level after regulation1.7%
Titans by 1–817.9%
Titans by 9–1622.4%
Titans by 17+46.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.2 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 3, without the luck Titans by 2.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • E. McPherson, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • E. McPherson, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • R. Bullock, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. McPherson, 52 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 6 for 46 yards, Titans 2 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:52 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.8 pts
Q1 8:39 Fair Catch Interference on the Bengals (Tre Flowers), 15 yards +4% TEN +1.3 pts
Q2 11:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Racey McMath), 10 yards +3% CIN +1.0 pts
Q2 6:07 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bengals, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% TEN 0.0 pts
Q2 1:47 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.4 pts
Q3 6:48 Taunting on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 15 yards +4% TEN +1.2 pts
Q3 0:42 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q4 5:08 False Start on the Bengals (Joe Mixon), 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TEN +0.6 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:47 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedFalse Start on the Bengals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% TEN CIN: Field goal
2 Q2 1:40 E. McPherson made 54-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 13 of 17 from 45+ before +10% CIN CIN: End of half
3 Q4 12:13 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +16% TEN CIN: Punt
4 Q4 7:21 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% CIN TEN: Turnover
5 Q4 5:49 The Bengals converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +9% CIN CIN: Punt
6 Q4 3:38 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% TEN CIN: Punt
7 Q4 0:28 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +23% CIN –
8 Q4 0:04 E. McPherson made 52-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 14 of 18 from 45+ before +26% CIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Monty Rice (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Riley Reiff (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Larry Ogunjobi (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 21% · Titans 79%

Final margin
Bengals by 3
Luck in points
5.2 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 13% · Titans 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Divisional round 2021 games · Bengals · Titans

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