luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Cardinals, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Cardinals 24–21, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:26 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Green Bay Packers 24
Arizona Cardinals 21

October 28, 2021 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −6.5

Luck index +65 Packers very lucky · −65 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 GB 30 ARI 13
  2. 2 GB 27 ARI 20
  3. 3 GB 37 ARI 34
  4. 4 GB 14 ARI 16
  5. 5 GB 13 ARI 17
  6. 6 GB 31 ARI 38
  7. 7 GB 10 ARI 20
  8. 8 GB 13 ARI 26
  9. 9 GB 24 ARI 41
  10. 10 GB 16 ARI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 35% of them, Cardinals 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+3.5%
Packers by 9–168.8%
Packers by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Cardinals by 1–827.5%
Cardinals by 9–1620.8%
Cardinals by 17+16.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Packers by 3, without the luck Packers by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Packers 7 for 60 yards, Cardinals 7 for 59 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Equanimeous St. Brown), 10 yards +2% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 12:58 Face Mask on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yards, wiping out the play +5% ARI +2.2 pts
Q1 10:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% GB +1.5 pts
Q1 8:18 Face Mask on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 15 yards +4% GB +1.3 pts
Q1 2:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 11:50 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Malik Taylor), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.1 pts
Q2 5:41 Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +1% GB 0.0 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 10 yards +1% GB +0.7 pts
Q3 11:42 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Jordan Phillips), 15 yards +5% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 8:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Dean Lowry), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 14:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 11 yards +3% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 4:55 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 2 yards +1% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 4:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 2 yards +2% GB +0.4 pts
Q4 3:39 Delay of Game on the Packers, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +1.4 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:18 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFace Mask on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2597 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:52 The Cardinals fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% GB ARI: Punt
3 Q3 13:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% GB ARI: Touchdown
4 Q4 15:00 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:17 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:26 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +17% ARI GB: End of game
7 Q4 2:46 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% ARI ARI: Turnover
8 Q4 1:21 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% ARI ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • J.J. Watt (ARI DE), out · 1.3 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Max Garcia (ARI C), out · 0.2 pts
  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Za'Darius Smith (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 70% · Cardinals 30%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 35% · Cardinals 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Packers · Cardinals

More from Week 8 2021