luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Lions, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Lions 44–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 44
Detroit Lions 6

October 31, 2021 · Ford Field · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +2 Eagles about even · −2 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 10, Lions win 0.

  1. 1 PHI 45 DET 10
  2. 2 PHI 44 DET 17
  3. 3 PHI 27 DET 3
  4. 4 PHI 34 DET 14
  5. 5 PHI 19 DET 0
  6. 6 PHI 19 DET 3
  7. 7 PHI 31 DET 17
  8. 8 PHI 24 DET 13
  9. 9 PHI 23 DET 16
  10. 10 PHI 20 DET 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 98% of them, Lions 2%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+76.2%
Eagles by 9–1615.8%
Eagles by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Lions by 1–81.6%
Lions by 9–160.1%
Lions by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.1 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 38, without the luck Eagles by 28.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 2 for 15 yards, Lions 8 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:46 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 2 yards, wiping out the play +5% PHI +1.4 pts
Q1 0:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Michael Brockers), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.6 pts
Q2 9:12 False Start on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.5 pts
Q2 1:12 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% PHI +3.5 pts
Q2 1:00 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Steven Nelson), 5 yards 0% DET +0.2 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (K'Von Wallace), 10 yards +1% DET +0.9 pts
Q3 13:37 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.5 pts
Q3 7:14 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% PHI +2.0 pts
Q3 2:20 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Lions, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 12:16 Leverage on the Lions (Julian Okwara), 14 yards 0% PHI +3.0 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% PHI DET: Punt
2 Q1 12:13 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% DET PHI: Punt
3 Q1 8:41 A. Seibert missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 9 of 16 from 45+ before +8% PHI DET: Punt
4 Q1 4:46 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1872 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:14 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:51 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% PHI DET: Punt
7 Q2 8:33 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% PHI DET: Punt
8 Q2 1:12 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% PHI PHI: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Quintez Cephus (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Harris (PHI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Wilson (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Lions 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 38
Luck in points
9.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 28.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 98% · Lions 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Eagles · Lions

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