Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Cowboys at Vikings, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?
The Cowboys beat the Vikings 20–16, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 27 points of win probability to the Vikings.
An off day for the Vikings: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Vikings were 63% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:00 left): Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 38 points of win probability to the Cowboys.
Final
 Dallas Cowboys | 20 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Vikings | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Cowboys about even · −7 Vikings
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Vikings win 1.
- 1 DAL 36 MIN 0
- 2 DAL 48 MIN 20
- 3 DAL 35 MIN 12
- 4 DAL 44 MIN 24
- 5 DAL 30 MIN 14
- 6 DAL 26 MIN 13
- 7 DAL 20 MIN 10
- 8 DAL 30 MIN 23
- 9 DAL 26 MIN 23
- 10 DAL 16 MIN 23
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Vikings
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cowboys they would win 58% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
51 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys offenseEPA per play gained | +0.18 | +0.15 | better by 0.03 |
| Cowboys defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.23 | +0.17 | better by 0.40 |
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | −0.23 | +0.16 | worse by 0.39 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.18 | +0.12 | worse by 0.06 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Cowboys win 93% of them, Vikings 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Cowboys by 17+ | 59.4% |
| Cowboys by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Cowboys by 1–8 | 14.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 4.3% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 1.5% |
| Vikings by 17+ | 0.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 43 yds missed · 84% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 90% expected
- G. Joseph, 45 yds made · 81% expected
- G. Joseph, 40 yds made · 89% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 39 yds made · 89% expected
- G. Joseph, 24 yds made · 99% expected
Penalties: Cowboys 11 for 96 yards, Vikings 7 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:41 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 14 yards | +8% MIN +1.8 pts |
| Q1 9:20 | Defensive Offside on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q1 7:18 | False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:17 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 5 yards | 0% DAL +0.1 pts |
| Q2 4:56 | Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Bradlee Anae), 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% MIN +2.6 pts |
| Q3 14:07 | Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards | +1% MIN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 13:27 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Luke Stocker), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% DAL +1.9 pts |
| Q3 2:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Mackensie Alexander), 14 yards | +2% DAL +1.2 pts |
| Q4 13:46 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 9 yards | +5% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:13 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +19% MIN +3.1 pts |
| Q4 9:56 | Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Kirk Cousins), 13 yards | +4% DAL +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:46 | Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Tarell Basham), 15 yards | +2% MIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 6:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Randy Gregory), 14 yards | +7% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 5:29 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Randy Gregory), 4 yards | +2% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +38% DAL +2.8 pts |
| Q4 1:18 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards | +12% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | Defensive Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:42 | False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DAL +0.4 pts |
Cowboys penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Vikings’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 2:49 | The Vikings converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +10% MIN | MIN: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 14:18 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +22% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 12:13 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +19% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 11:22 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +12% DAL | DAL: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 2:54 | G. Joseph made 24-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him | +14% MIN | MIN: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 2:00 | The game turned hereIllegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2693 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 | +38% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:18 | Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +12% MIN | MIN: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 1:04 | The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedDefensive Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +21% DAL | DAL: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Patrick Peterson (MIN CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
- Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out, replaced by c.rush · 9.0 pts
- Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Cowboys 90% · Vikings 10%
- Final margin
- Cowboys by 4
- Luck in points
- 13.9 for the Vikings
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cowboys by 17.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Cowboys 93% · Vikings 7% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · 
Cowboys · 
Vikings
More from Week 8 2021
- Packers at Cardinals GB 24–21 · replay 35% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 19–13 · replay 32% for the winner
- Bengals at Jets NYJ 34–31 · replay 62% for the winner
- Rams at Texans LA 38–22 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 26–11 · replay 92% for the winner
- Eagles at Lions PHI 44–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns PIT 15–10 · replay 54% for the winner
- 49ers at Bears SF 33–22 · replay 96% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 34–31 · replay 38% for the winner
- Jaguars at Seahawks SEA 31–7 · replay 57% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 36–27 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Broncos DEN 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Giants at Chiefs KC 20–17 · replay 81% for the winner