Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bengals at Jets, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Bengals 34–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.
An off day for the Bengals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 76% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bengals were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:19 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 6, worth 11 points of win probability to the Jets.
Final
 Cincinnati Bengals | 31 |
|---|---|
 New York Jets | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Jets lucky · −38 Bengals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Jets win 6.
- 1 CIN 35 NYJ 16
- 2 CIN 34 NYJ 23
- 3 CIN 23 NYJ 16
- 4 CIN 27 NYJ 24
- 5 CIN 18 NYJ 20
- 6 CIN 23 NYJ 28
- 7 CIN 23 NYJ 32
- 8 CIN 14 NYJ 27
- 9 CIN 17 NYJ 34
- 10 CIN 13 NYJ 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Bengals
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 76% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bengals offenseEPA per play gained | +0.13 | +0.14 | worse by 0.01 |
| Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.29 | +0.11 | worse by 0.18 |
| Jets offenseEPA per play gained | +0.29 | +0.01 | better by 0.28 |
| Jets defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.13 | +0.18 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bengals win 38% of them, Jets 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bengals by 17+ | 7.0% |
| Bengals by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| Bengals by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 23.6% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Jets by 17+ | 19.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Ammendola, 54 yds missed · 60% expected
- E. McPherson, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- M. Ammendola, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- M. Ammendola, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Bengals 5 for 51 yards, Jets 8 for 46 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:19 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Elijah Moore), 10 yards | +3% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q1 9:08 | False Start on the Jets (Denzel Mims), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 8:49 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Eli Apple), 11 yards | +3% NYJ +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:18 | Defensive Holding on the Jets, 2 yards | +1% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:48 | Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYJ +0.3 pts |
| Q2 6:49 | Encroachment on the Jets (Folorunso Fatukasi), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Encroachment on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% NYJ +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:34 | Roughing the Passer on the Bengals, 15 yards | +4% NYJ +1.4 pts |
| Q4 6:08 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards | +3% CIN +1.1 pts |
| Q4 4:43 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals, 15 yards | +6% NYJ +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.3 pts |
Bengals penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Jets’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 10:43 | The Bengals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 4:14 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:19 | The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +11% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 9:38 | The Jets converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +9% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 13:12 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +10% CIN | NYJ: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 7:36 | The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 3:45 | The Jets’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% NYJ | NYJ: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 2:24 | The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +8% NYJ | CIN: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.9 pts
- Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Braden Mann (NYJ P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bengals 10% · Jets 90%
- Final margin
- Jets by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.1 for the Bengals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bengals 38% · Jets 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · 
Bengals · 
Jets
More from Week 8 2021
- Packers at Cardinals GB 24–21 · replay 35% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 19–13 · replay 32% for the winner
- Rams at Texans LA 38–22 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 26–11 · replay 92% for the winner
- Eagles at Lions PHI 44–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns PIT 15–10 · replay 54% for the winner
- 49ers at Bears SF 33–22 · replay 96% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 34–31 · replay 38% for the winner
- Jaguars at Seahawks SEA 31–7 · replay 57% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 36–27 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Broncos DEN 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 20–16 · replay 93% for the winner
- Giants at Chiefs KC 20–17 · replay 81% for the winner