luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Broncos, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat Washington 17–10, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Broncos were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:27 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 24 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 10
Denver Broncos 17

October 31, 2021 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Broncos −4

Luck index +52 Broncos lucky · −52 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 5, Broncos win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 20 DEN 0
  2. 2 WAS 24 DEN 13
  3. 3 WAS 16 DEN 7
  4. 4 WAS 20 DEN 14
  5. 5 WAS 16 DEN 13
  6. 6 WAS 14 DEN 17
  7. 7 WAS 10 DEN 16
  8. 8 WAS 14 DEN 23
  9. 9 WAS 7 DEN 20
  10. 10 WAS 0 DEN 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 52% of them, Broncos 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+9.8%
Washington by 9–1615.8%
Washington by 1–822.4%
Level after regulation6.0%
Broncos by 1–823.4%
Broncos by 9–1614.1%
Broncos by 17+8.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.4 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 7, without the luck Broncos by 3.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Blewitt, 45 yds blocked · 81% expected
  • B. McManus, 45 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Blewitt, 52 yds made · 68% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds missed · 71% expected
  • C. Blewitt, 47 yds blocked · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 4 for 29 yards, Broncos 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.6 pts
Q1 6:03 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% WAS +1.0 pts
Q1 4:55 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Broncos, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% WAS +1.1 pts
Q1 4:04 Face Mask on the Broncos (Ronald Darby), 15 yards +3% WAS +2.3 pts
Q2 14:15 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% DEN +0.7 pts
Q3 10:59 Offensive Holding on Washington, 4 yards, wiping out the play +6% DEN +2.1 pts
Q3 0:38 False Start on the Broncos (Noah Fant), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.5 pts
Q4 15:00 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Jamin Davis), 15 yards +6% DEN +1.9 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 Washington converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +9% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 9:33 Washington were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% DEN WAS: Missed field goal
3 Q2 6:00 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% DEN WAS: Field goal
4 Q4 13:13 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +11% DEN DEN: Missed field goal
5 Q4 6:54 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +14% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 4:31 The Broncos converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +10% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:49 Washington were stopped on 4th & 193rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +11% DEN WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:27 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +24% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Josey Jewell (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Scherff (WAS G), out · 0.6 pts
  • Dyami Brown (WAS WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 23% · Broncos 77%

Final margin
Broncos by 7
Luck in points
3.4 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 3.6
Replay with same day's form
Washington 52% · Broncos 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Washington · Broncos

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