luckadjusted

2021 season · final

Washington Football Team, 2021: game by game

Washington went 7–10 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 7.2 wins. Luck cost them 0.2: the 16th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.

Every game

How often Washington win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 vs Chargers L 16–20 11% −11
Week 2 vs Giants W 30–29 61% +39
Week 3 @ Bills L 21–43 3% −3
Week 4 @ Falcons W 34–30 70% +30
Week 5 vs Saints L 22–33 66% −66
Week 6 vs Chiefs L 13–31 5% −5
Week 7 @ Packers L 10–24 46% −46
Week 8 @ Broncos L 10–17 52% −52
Week 10 vs Buccaneers W 29–19 17% +83
Week 11 @ Panthers W 27–21 68% +32
Week 12 vs Seahawks W 17–15 89% +11
Week 13 @ Raiders W 17–15 51% +49
Week 14 vs Cowboys L 20–27 22% −22
Week 15 @ Eagles L 17–27 8% −8
Week 16 @ Cowboys L 14–56 13% −13
Week 17 vs Eagles L 16–20 44% −44
Week 18 @ Giants W 22–7 92% +8

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Washington’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

KindWinsPoints
Judgment calls+0.42+9.0
Fumble bounces+0.20+7.9
Rest−0.07−2.8
Kicks−0.23−10.4
3rd & 4th downs−0.43−14.2
Injuries−0.44−19.2