luckadjusted

Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Washington, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat Washington 20–16, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:36 left): Washington were stopped on 4th & 4, worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 20
Washington Football Team 16

January 2, 2022 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −6.5

Luck index +44 Eagles lucky · −44 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 6, Washington win 4.

  1. 1 PHI 31 WAS 10
  2. 2 PHI 22 WAS 7
  3. 3 PHI 41 WAS 30
  4. 4 PHI 20 WAS 13
  5. 5 PHI 16 WAS 12
  6. 6 PHI 22 WAS 20
  7. 7 PHI 12 WAS 14
  8. 8 PHI 23 WAS 28
  9. 9 PHI 10 WAS 20
  10. 10 PHI 14 WAS 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 56% of them, Washington 44%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+10.2%
Eagles by 9–1615.8%
Eagles by 1–823.7%
Level after regulation7.2%
Washington by 1–823.5%
Washington by 9–1612.3%
Washington by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.1 points to the Washington: the final margin was Eagles by 4, without the luck Eagles by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Slye, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Slye, 55 yds made · 64% expected
  • J. Elliott, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 6 for 42 yards, Washington 1 for 4 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:52 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Genard Avery), 5 yards, wiping out the play +9% WAS +3.2 pts
Q2 8:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Fletcher Cox), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 10:37 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 4:12 False Start on Washington, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 0:49 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards +4% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 12:29 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% WAS +1.0 pts
Q4 9:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 12 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:52 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Genard Avery), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 827 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +9% WAS WAS: Field goal
2 Q2 11:52 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +11% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q3 10:10 The Eagles converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q3 7:27 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +9% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:36 Washington were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +18% PHI WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 5:36 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% PHI PHI: Field goal
7 Q4 2:13 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 0:36 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +12% WAS WAS: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS SS), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Ereck Flowers (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Smith-Williams (WAS DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brian Johnson (WAS K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Antonio Gibson (WAS RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Larsen (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Logan Thomas (WAS TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tress Way (WAS P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jack Driscoll (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Davion Taylor (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 97% · Washington 3%

Final margin
Eagles by 4
Luck in points
2.1 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 56% · Washington 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · Eagles · Washington

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