Week 17 2021 · January 2, 2022
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Rams at Ravens, Week 17 2021: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Ravens 20–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Before kickoff the Rams were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23, worth 33 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 20 |
|---|---|
 Baltimore Ravens | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Rams about even · −16 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 8, Ravens win 2.
- 1 LA 42 BAL 13
- 2 LA 31 BAL 9
- 3 LA 38 BAL 20
- 4 LA 17 BAL 3
- 5 LA 32 BAL 21
- 6 LA 22 BAL 13
- 7 LA 25 BAL 20
- 8 LA 23 BAL 20
- 9 LA 10 BAL 14
- 10 LA 23 BAL 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 84% of them, Ravens 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 37.3% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 25.6% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Ravens by 17+ | 1.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Gay, 56 yds missed · 64% expected
- J. Tucker, 22 yds made · 100% expected
- J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 84% expected
- J. Tucker, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Rams 4 for 35 yards, Ravens 4 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:33 | Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards | +6% BAL +1.2 pts |
| Q2 12:56 | Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:16 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 9 yards | +3% LA +1.3 pts |
| Q2 2:55 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Rams (Sony Michel), 15 yards | +3% BAL +1.9 pts |
| Q3 10:27 | Defensive Offside on the Rams (Leonard Floyd), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 2:13 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 5:19 | Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LA +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:03 | Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LA 0.0 pts |
Rams penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Ravens’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:18 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +9% LA | BAL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 5:40 | M. Gay missed 56-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 20 of 25 from 45+ before | +12% BAL | LA: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 2:03 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams | +30% BAL | LA: Turnover |
| 4 | Q3 13:58 | The Rams converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +10% LA | LA: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 1:20 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +11% BAL | LA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:08 | The Rams converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +17% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:57 | The Rams’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +10% BAL | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 233rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +33% LA | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.0 pts
- Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
- Anthony Averett (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Ben Powers (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
- Odafe Oweh (BAL LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Robert Woods (LA WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Ernest Jones (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Darrell Henderson (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 88% · Ravens 12%
- Final margin
- Rams by 1
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for the Rams
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 2.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 84% · Ravens 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2021 games · 
Rams · 
Ravens
More from Week 17 2021
- Falcons at Bills BUF 29–15 · replay 75% for the winner
- Jaguars at Patriots NE 50–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bengals CIN 34–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Raiders at Colts LV 23–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Dolphins at Titans TEN 34–3 · replay 89% for the winner
- Giants at Bears CHI 29–3 · replay 90% for the winner
- Eagles at Washington PHI 20–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Jets TB 28–24 · replay 89% for the winner
- Broncos at Chargers LAC 34–13 · replay 53% for the winner
- Texans at 49ers SF 23–7 · replay 99% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 25–22 · replay 75% for the winner
- Panthers at Saints NO 18–10 · replay 81% for the winner
- Lions at Seahawks SEA 51–29 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 37–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 26–14 · replay 38% for the winner